Abstract
A theoretical model was developed to investigate the effect of different levels of electric vehicle uptake on Australian energy security, with respect to the projected growth in fuel and energy consumption by the light passenger vehicle (LPV) fleet in the period to 2050. It also estimated the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions directly resulting from fuel combustion and vehicle recharging, plus aggregated vehicle fuel and energy costs for consumers.
A systematic permutation analysis of model results was used to identify the best solution, defined as having the lowest LPV fleet consumption of oil and energy, plus the lowest GHG emissions and consumer cost in the period to 2050. It is expected that if the main attributes of this solution were adopted by policymakers and consumers, then the LPV fleet dependence on conventional fuels would be virtually eliminated during this period and Australian liquid fuel security would be greatly improved.
