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A novel approach for forecasting of residential, commercial and industrial electricity loads
Conference paper

A novel approach for forecasting of residential, commercial and industrial electricity loads

M.K. Moghaddam and P.A. Bahri
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering and Computer Science 2012 Vol II WCECS 2012, pp.1365-1371
Newswood Limited
The World Congress on Engineering and Computer Science (WCECS) 2012 (San Francisco, CA, USA, 24/10/2012–26/10/2012)
2012
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Abstract

In this paper an innovative method for one and seven-day forecast of electricity load is proposed. The new approach has been tested on three different cases from south-west Western Australia's interconnected system. They have been tested under the most realistic conditions by considering only minimum and maximum forecasts of temperature and relative humidity as available future inputs. Two different nonlinear approaches of neural networks and decision trees have been applied to fit proper models. A modified version of mean absolute percentage error (MMAPE) of each model over the test year is presented. By applying a developed criterion to recognize the dominant component of the electricity load, user of this work will be able to choose the most efficient forecasting method.

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