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Conference proceeding
How Model Outputs Can Be Used To Improve Decision-Making: Using Bio-economic Model Outputs in Deliberative Multi-criteria Evaluation to Prioritize Invasive Pest Species
Interfacing Modelling and Simulation with Mathematical and Computational Sciences. Proceedings, pp.2894-2900
18th IMACS World Congress MODSIM09 (Cairns, Australia, 13/07/2009–17/07/2009)
07/2009
Abstract
The sheer number and complexity of biophysical and socio-economic models and their outputs can quickly overwhelm stakeholders who are trying to make sense of a natural resource-related issue. Add uncertainty to this bulk of multi-faceted information from risk analyses and the justification for selecting a course of action becomes an even more daunting endeavour. Decision and policy makers have to combine model outputs with a variety of other information sources in order to make difficult trade-offs between often conflicting investment options. A transparent and flexible decision facilitation process is required to help assimilate complex model outputs and other information within the context of policy considerations and guide decision-makers toward agreed conclusions on the issue at hand.
To aid stakeholders in the prioritization of biosecurity risk investment options, we provide information on invasive pest risk including a bio-economic pest impact model, socio-economic activity and ecological impacts. The specialized nature of the information, such as pest impact models, inevitably reach beyond the expertise of a participant group comprised of the public or a policy-making group, thus requiring decision support in the form of interpreting key findings and the corresponding uncertainty. The bio-economic model makes predictions concerning the costs incurred by the industry if the pest becomes part of the production scheme. The model has an associated sensitivity analysis that presents the full range of uncertainty surrounding possible costs. With this knowledge of uncertainty, the stakeholders can gauge how much confidence they want to place in the model output for use as a reference in ranking the pest risks. Outputs of the impact model along with other pest impact information are integrated using a deliberative decision facilitation methodology in order to bridge the communication and knowledge gap between the results and policy making participants. Upon consideration of stakeholder discussion and expert-based information provided, the role of participants is then to weight the factors they deem to be the most important in rating the "relative severity" of a set of biosecurity threats/pests. As a result, the process immerses the stakeholder or policy maker into the discussion of information sources such as model results, and goes a step further by eliciting opinion regarding the most important consequences within the context of the issue.
This decision support, primarily by means of a structured participatory configuration, aids the policy maker to understand the information being used to base the decisions on. This increased understanding helps lead to a sanctioning of the policies concerned - i.e., decisions are more likely to command assent and therefore lead to the desired outcomes if they have been formulated with a wide range of support. Stakeholder inclusion is also beneficial as participants can be the source of relevant local and social knowledge.
Details
- Title
- How Model Outputs Can Be Used To Improve Decision-Making: Using Bio-economic Model Outputs in Deliberative Multi-criteria Evaluation to Prioritize Invasive Pest Species
- Authors/Creators
- Michael Hurley - Dept Primary Ind, Parkville, Vic 3052, AustraliaKim Lowell - Dept Primary Ind, Parkville, Vic 3052, AustraliaDavid CookShuang LiuAbu-Baker SiddiqueArt Diggle
- Contributors
- R S Anderssen (Editor)R D Braddock (Editor)LTH Newham (Editor)
- Publication Details
- Interfacing Modelling and Simulation with Mathematical and Computational Sciences. Proceedings, pp.2894-2900
- Conference
- 18th IMACS World Congress MODSIM09 (Cairns, Australia, 13/07/2009–17/07/2009)
- Publisher
- Modelling & Simulation Soc Australia & New Zealand Inc
- Number of pages
- 7
- Identifiers
- 991005579463707891
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Harry Butler Institute; Centre for Biosecurity and One Health
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Conference proceeding
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