Doctoral Thesis
A model-based framework for determining impacts of fire-climate interactions on woody plant species
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Murdoch University
2024
Abstract
In this thesis, I investigate how climate change and altered fire regimes affect Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems (MTEs), focusing on the fire-killed, serotinous shrub Banksia hookeriana. I have developed mechanistic, process-based models in C++ and R to examine the interactions among climate, fire, and vegetation. The research centers on the Interval Squeeze Hypothesis (ISH), identifying fire interval, post-fire recruitment, and demographic shifts as key drivers of plant decline in fire-prone ecosystems under changing climates. I assess the ISH’s relevance to B. hookeriana in different conditions.
Chapter 1 introduces MTEs and the ISH, setting the context for understanding its implications for species like B. hookeriana. Chapter 2 reviews the combined effects of climate change and fire on vegetation, identifying research gaps. Chapter 3 explores demographic shifts in B. hookeriana, showing that reduced seed set from decreased pollination could shorten persistence time by 12–17%, worsening climate change impacts. Chapter 4 uses a spatial metapopulation model, suggesting metapopulation dynamics might enhance regional persistence, but long-term survival needs better habitat quality and higher survival and seed production by 25%. Chapter 5
evaluates indirect buffering mechanisms against climate change for B. hookeriana, finding that only increased inter-fire recruitment slightly improves persistence, with larger fires extending persistence times at the same recruitment rates.
The simulations and analyses support the ISH’s predictions and highlight B. hookeriana’s vulnerability to climate change, frequent fires, and reduced pollination. My research enhances the ISH by integrating indirect climate change effects on pollination success and introducing concepts like the ‘Fire Size Shift’, ‘Fire Severity Shift’, and ‘Inter-fire Recruitment Shift’. These findings provide critical insights for conserving fire-prone ecosystems in a changing climate. The thesis concludes by discussing broader ecological implications, future research directions, and advocating for re-evaluating the conservation status of B. hookeriana and similar species.
Details
- Title
- A model-based framework for determining impacts of fire-climate interactions on woody plant species
- Authors/Creators
- Rodrigo Souto Veiga
- Contributors
- Florian Jeltsch (Supervisor) - University of PotsdamNeal Enright (Supervisor) - Murdoch University, Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityJuergen Groeneveld (Supervisor) - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental ResearchJoseph B Fontaine (Supervisor) - Murdoch University
- Awarding Institution
- Murdoch University; Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
- Identifiers
- 991005729586807891
- Murdoch Affiliation
- College of Environmental and Life Sciences; School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences
- Resource Type
- Doctoral Thesis
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