Epidemiology and economic impact of foot and mouth disease in cattle in Baghlan Province, Afghanistan

Arash Osmani

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of livestock which can have a significant impact on the productivity of affected livestock and the economy of impacted countries. Prior to the research reported in this thesis little was known about the disease in Afghanistan, even though it was first officially reported in the country in 1962. A study of historical data was initially conducted highlighting that FMD had probably been present in the country since the 1950’s. A total of 1471 outbreaks were recorded between 1995 and 2008 with a strong correlation (r = 0.74, P = 0.002) between the number of outbreaks and the number of districts reporting the disease. The results of over 7500 samples from cattle from 34 provinces highlighted significant differences in the prevalence between years. The provinces of Hirat (bordering Iran) and Nangarhar (bordering Pakistan) and the capital Kabul had FMD diagnosed in all years that samples were submitted. Sera were collected from 376 cattle owned by 198 farmers in 53 villages of Baghlan province as a component of this research. Farmers were also administered a questionnaire to elucidate the history of FMD in their herds and villages, along with the husbandry and management practices adopted. 419 cases of FMD, based on presence of clinical signs, were reported in the 12 months prior to administering the questionnaire. The overall seroprevalence was 42.02% (95% CI, 37.0-47.2) with higher seroprevalences in adult cattle (> 6 years - 52.2%; 2 - 6 years - 40.3%, < 2 years - 30.4%). Purchasing cattle from unknown or risky sources (OR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.13-4.03) and contact with animal product markets (OR = 1.99; 95% CI, 1.09- 3.63) increased the likelihood of a herd being seropositive. In contrast, vaccinated herds had lower odds of being seropositive (OR = 0.33; 95% CI, 0.68-0.66). 198 farmers, 50 veterinarians and 25 animal traders/butchers were administered a questionnaire to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAPs) on FMD in the study area in Baghlan. 48.5% of the farmers and all traders had heard of the disease. The majority of farmers could correctly identify the clinical signs of FMD (between 77% and 86%, depending on the presenting clinical signs) and most believed that introduction of new animals to their herds or neighbourhoods was the primary cause for its spread in their area. 55.6% preferred not to purchase ruminants from unknown or potentially infected areas to avoid the introduction of the disease into their herd/neighbourhood. Few (39%) farmers vaccinated their livestock against FMD, although they were interested in receiving more information on its control and prevention. Traders/butchers would either sell or slaughter affected animals in the event of an outbreak, even preferring to sell sick animals at less than market price rather than paying for their treatment. Veterinary services, which were primarily administered by para-veterinarians and basic veterinary workers, were generally poor, primarily due to a lack of expertise and knowledge of the staff. There was no regular vaccination program adopted against FMD in the study area and this, along with a lack of Government import controls and quarantine, made the control of FMD challenging in both the study area and Afghanistan. A second questionnaire was administered to the cattle farmers to determine the financial impact of FMD in their herds. 96 of the 198 surveyed were able to specify the financial losses due to FMD in their herds in the 12-month period preceding the survey. The losses per head per FMD outbreak ranged from AFN 448.33 (USD 6.34) to AFN 2,257.14 (USD 29.31), with most losses (64.4%) arising from reduced returns from milk and milk products. All affected cattle received some form of treatment, and extra care was given to sick cattle to avoid mixing with neighbouring herds. The short-term losses arising from FMD outbreaks would represent an average of 5.71% of the farmer’s monthly income. A benefit-cost analysis model highlighted the advantage of adopting a bi-annual mass vaccination program in the study area with a BCR of 1.76 (95% CI; 1.22 - 3.66), NPV of USD 0.37 million (95% CI; 0.11 - 1.30), and an IRR of 43.89% (95% CI; 17.9% - 117.4%). Extrapolating this program nationwide resulted in a BCR of 1.75 (95% CI; 1.22 - 3.72), an NPV of USD 74.08 million (95% CI; 21.01 - 267.1), and an IRR of 43.76% (95% CI; 17.4% - 118.2%). A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the largest effect on the outcome in both the study area and in the country was from milk and milk products losses (regression coefficient = 0.83), followed by non-milk related losses (0.53) and the mortality rate in adult cattle (0.15). It was concluded that implementing a bi-annual mass vaccination program against FMD would profit not only the surveyed farmers but also the whole nation’s economy.

Epidemiology and economic impact of foot and mouth disease in cattle in Baghlan Province, Afghanistan

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