Decarbonisation pathway of Australia’s land freight transport sector

Ali Boroujerdi

Decarbonisation is crucial for Australia to fulfil its global commitments and effectively address climate change. The transport sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, with land freight transport accounting for roughly half of the sector’s emissions. Strategic techno-economic planning for decarbonising Australia's land freight transport by 2050 necessitates addressing key inquiries such as emissions reduction impacts associated with varying degrees of development, the impact of replacing fossil fuel vehicles with electric vehicles, and the requirement of refuelling stations. This research develops a novel model to incorporate the direct impact of costs on vehicle sales shares, accurate estimation of time costs, and reliable methods for estimating required refuelling stations. The model analyses Australia's land freight sector across nine scenarios. These scenarios encompass varying levels of development in both electricity and hydrogen usage, alongside considerations such as bans on internal combustion engines (ICE). The comprehensive scope of the model allows for projections on vehicle stock, fuel and energy consumption, required refuelling infrastructure, and emissions through 2050. The research outcomes show that under a moderate level of development, the penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in light commercial vehicles surpasses fuel cell electric vehicles, while fuel cell vehicles dominate trucks. The findings underscore the imperative for significant investment, which is particularly evident in high-development scenarios where there is a notable surge in hydrogen station requirements. Additionally, the demand for BEV chargers reaches a peak of 120,000 under the ICE-ban scenario. The results from emissions analysis highlight trends that vary depending on the scenario, showing notable decreases in tank-to-wheel and well-to-wheel emissions under the ICE-ban and comprehensive (ICE-ban plus high development) scenarios. This emphasises the environmental ramifications of policy decisions and technological advancements, highlighting the importance of considering such factors in shaping future strategies.

Decarbonisation pathway of Australia’s land freight transport sector

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