Developing long-term energy and carbon emission modelling for the operational activities of ports: A case study of Fremantle Ports

Jordan Petzer

The port and maritime industry contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions. As such, there is increasing pressure for ports to decarbonise their operations. Despite the availability of multiple port carbon inventory and emission reduction guidance documents, no published methodologies currently exist for the development of port energy consumption and carbon emission forecasting. To fill this information gap, a methodology was developed through the review and experimentation with established forecasting techniques. The ‘ISCA’ Base Case Approach was adopted as a scaffolding for model development, largely to test the usability of the approach, currently in pilot. The approach consists of a baseline scenario and an ‘actual case’ scenario. A combination of qualitative, quantitative - time series and quantitative - causal modelling techniques were incorporated into the methodology. Linear and non-linear regression analysis curve-fitting techniques were selected as the most appropriate time-series modelling method for long-term energy and emissions projections, with simple linear regression analysis used for causal models. The methodology was tested through its application in a case study for Fremantle Ports. As a result of obligations from the state government to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, Fremantle Ports required the development of long-term energy consumption and carbon emission projections for its internal operations and container terminals to 2050. Using a bottom-up strategy, categorising energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by trade type, energy type and facility, the methodology successfully developed long-term energy and emissions projections. As per this modelling, energy consumption at Fremantle Ports is expected to increase 53% under the baseline scenario and 46.5% under the actual case scenario (Figure 1). Despite increases of energy consumption at the port, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decrease 71% and 74% under the baseline and actual case scenarios, respectively (Figure 2). These drastic emissions reductions are predominantly the result of projected scope 2 emission factor decreases as grid renewable electricity generation capacity increases. The usability of the ISCA Base Case Approach for energy and emissions modelling was found to be adequate, although issues were experienced distinguishing constant and variable energy use. Additionally, it is recommended that a third scenario is incorporated into the approach.

Developing long-term energy and carbon emission modelling for the operational activities of ports: A case study of Fremantle Ports

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