Exploring the Success and Failure of Counterinsurgency Operations: A Comparative Analysis of COIN Operations in Sri Lanka and the Philippines

Glynn Davies

This thesis investigates the critical elements determining the success or failure of Counter-Insurgency (COIN) operations, emphasizing the roles of political resolve, operational readiness, operational coherence, information dominance, and population-centric approaches. The research employs a comparative case study method, examining the Indian peacekeeping operations in Sri Lanka against the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) and the Philippine army operations in Marawi against Islamist insurgents. The central hypothesis posits that COIN operations with robust political grounding, sufficient operational readiness, strong operational coherence, effective information dominance, and population-centric strategies are more likely to succeed in regaining control of territories and reestablishing sovereign rule. Political resolve ensures sustained resources and support, while operational readiness enables military forces to respond effectively to insurgent threats. Operational coherence aligns all efforts towards unified goals, enhancing efficiency and effectiveness. A population-centric approach is vital for winning local support, gathering intelligence, and creating a stable operating environment. This strategy undermines insurgent influence by addressing the population's needs and grievances. Information dominance, achieved through superior intelligence and information operations, optimizes decision-making processes, enabling proactive and informed tactical decisions. The analysis reveals that the Indian peacekeeping mission in Sri Lanka failed due to inadequate implementation of these factors, while the Philippine army's success in Marawi underscores their importance. The findings support the hypothesis that mastering these critical elements significantly enhances the likelihood of successful COIN operations. The thesis contributes to the broader discourse on counter-insurgency strategies, offering practical insights for military and policy planners to achieve long-term peace and stability. The following chapters will delve deeper into the specific contributions of each factor, further illustrating their interconnectedness and providing a comprehensive understanding of what it takes to achieve successful COIN missions. This research underscores the necessity of a holistic approach that effectively integrates political, military, and social dimensions to counter insurgent threats and restore order in conflict-affected regions.

Exploring the Success and Failure of Counterinsurgency Operations: A Comparative Analysis of COIN Operations in Sri Lanka and the Philippines

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