Abstract
This paper estimates the economic benefits Australian pine plantations can expect to enjoy if the pine pitch canker fungus can be prevented from entering the country at any time over the next 30 years. It presents a stochastic bioeconomic model that estimates the additional costs imposed by producer behavioural changes as the pathogen enters the country and begins to spread. The avoidance of these large cost and revenue effects can be interpreted as the benefits of exclusion. Our results indicate that delaying the process of entry and spread by as little as two to three years will produce economic benefits of almost $13 million over time.