Are we Ready for the Next Pandemic? Public Preferences and Trade-offs Between Vaccine Characteristics and Societal Restrictions Across 21 countries

Marcello Antonini; Mesfin G. Genie; Katie Attwell; Arthur E. Attema; Jeremy K. Ward; Alessia Melegaro; Aleksandra Torbica; Brian Kelly; Chiara Berardi; Ana Rita Sequeira; Neil McGregor; Adrian Kellner; Shuli Brammli-Greenberg; Madeleine Hinwood; Liubovė Murauskienė; Daiga Behmane; Zsolt J. Balogh; Terje P. Hagen; Francesco Paolucci

doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.117687

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Are we Ready for the Next Pandemic? Public Preferences and Trade-offs Between Vaccine Characteristics and Societal Restrictions Across 21 countries

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Are we Ready for the Next Pandemic? Public Preferences and Trade-offs Between Vaccine Characteristics and Societal Restrictions Across 21 countries

Marcello Antonini, Mesfin G. Genie, Katie Attwell, Arthur E. Attema, Jeremy K. Ward, Alessia Melegaro, Aleksandra Torbica, Brian Kelly, Chiara Berardi, Ana Rita Sequeira, …

Social science & medicine (1982), Vol.366, 117687

2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.117687

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Abstract

DCE

Non-pharmaceutical Interventions

Pandemic

Vaccine mandate

Vaccine nationalism

In vaccination decisions, individuals must weigh the benefits against the risks of remaining unvaccinated and potentially facing social restrictions. Previous studies have focused on individual preferences for vaccine characteristics and societal restrictions separately. This study aims to quantify public preferences and the potential trade-offs between vaccine characteristics and societal restrictions, including lockdowns and vaccine mandates, in the event of a future pandemic. We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) involving 47,114 respondents from 21 countries between July 2022 and June 2023 through an online panel. Participants were presented with choices between two hypothetical vaccination programs and an option to opt out. A latent class logit model was used to estimate trade-offs among attributes. Despite some level of preference heterogeneity across countries and respondents’ profiles, we consistently identified three classes of respondents: vaccine refusers, vaccine-hesitant, and pro-vaccine individuals. Vaccine attributes were generally deemed more important than societal restriction attributes. We detected strong preferences for highest levels of vaccine effectiveness and domestically produced vaccines across most countries. Being fully vaccinated against COVID-19 was the strongest predictor of pro-vaccine class preferences. Women and younger people were more likely to be vaccine refusers compared to men and older individuals. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with vaccine hesitancy and refusal in some countries, while higher-educated and wealthier individuals were more likely to exhibit hesitancy in others. Our findings emphasize the need for tailored vaccination programs that consider local contexts and demographics. Building trust in national regulatory authorities and international organizations through targeted communication, along with investing in domestic production facilities, can improve vaccine uptake and enhance public health responses in the future.

Details

Title: Are we Ready for the Next Pandemic? Public Preferences and Trade-offs Between Vaccine Characteristics and Societal Restrictions Across 21 countries
Authors/Creators: Marcello Antonini - Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, UK
Mesfin G. Genie - Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, 2300, Australia
Katie Attwell - The University of Western Australia
Arthur E. Attema - EsCHER, Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 3062 PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Jeremy K. Ward - Université Paris Cité, CNRS, Inserm, Cermes3, F-94800 Villejuif, France
Alessia Melegaro - Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, 20136, Milano, Italy
Aleksandra Torbica - Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, 20136, Milano, Italy
Brian Kelly - Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, UK
Chiara Berardi - Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, 2300, Australia
Ana Rita Sequeira - Murdoch University, Murdoch Business School
Neil McGregor - NAIHE (Singapore), University of Newcastle Australia
Adrian Kellner - Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Forskningsveien 3a, 0317 Oslo, Norway
Shuli Brammli-Greenberg - Department of Health Administration and Economics, Braun School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Madeleine Hinwood - Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, UK
Liubovė Murauskienė - Department of Public Health. Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Lithuania
Daiga Behmane - Faculty of Public Health and Social Welfare, Riga Stradins University, Rīga, LV-1007, Latvia
Zsolt J. Balogh - Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, UK
Terje P. Hagen - Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Forskningsveien 3a, 0317 Oslo, Norway
Francesco Paolucci - Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, 2300, Australia
Publication Details: Social science & medicine (1982), Vol.366, 117687
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd.
Number of pages: 16
Grant note: Vice Chancellor's 2022 Seed Funding Round-Murdoch University, AustraliaNewcastle Australia Institute of Higher Education Project Research Grant Award, SingaporeSchool of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, AustraliaRiga Stradins University, LatviaUniversity of Oslo, NorwayCentre for Resources Health and Safety-University of Newcastle, AustraliaVilnius University, LithuaniaERC: 101003183 European Union
We acknowledge funding to administer the questionnaire from the following sources: ARS acknowledges research grant from Vice Chancellor's 2022 Seed Funding Round-Murdoch University, Australia; NM from Newcastle Australia Institute of Higher Education Project Research Grant Award (2022) , Singapore. MA acknowledges funding from the School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Australia (Additional HDR Support Funds round) . DB acknowledges funding from Riga Stradins University, Latvia; TPH and AK acknowledges funding from the University of Oslo, Norway; BK acknowledges funding from the Centre for Resources Health and Safety-University of Newcastle, Australia; LM acknowledges funding from the Vilnius University, Lithuania; AM acknowledges funding from the ERC Consolidator Grant (Grant agreement No. 101003183), European Union.
Identifiers: 991005732479307891
Murdoch Affiliation: Murdoch Business School
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 1 Clinical & Life Sciences; 1.104 Virology - General; 1.104.2777 Vaccine Hesitancy
Web Of Science research areas: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Social Sciences, Biomedical
ESI research areas: Social Sciences, general