Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response

Ted Cheeseman; Jay Barlow; Jo Marie Acebes; Katherina Audley; Lars Bejder; Caitlin Birdsall; Olga Solis Bracamontes; Amanda L. Bradford; Josie Byington; John Calambokidis; Rachel Cartwright; Jen Cedarleaf; Andrea Jacqueline García Chavez; Jens Currie; Rouenne Camille De Castro; Joëlle De Weerdt; Nicole Doe; Thomas Doniol-Valcroze; Karina Dracott; Olga Filatova; Rachel Finn; Kiirsten R. Flynn; John Ford; Astrid Frisch-Jordán; Chris Gabriele; Beth Goodwin; Craig Hayslip; Jackie Hildering; Marie C. Hill; Jeff K. Jacobsen; M. Esther Jiménez-López; Meagan Jones; Nozomi Kobayashi; Marc Lammers; Edward Lyman; Mark Malleson; Evgeny Mamaev; Pamela Martínez Loustalot; Annie Masterman; Craig O. Matkin; Christie McMillan; Jeff Moore; John Moran; Janet L. Neilson; Hayley Newell; Haruna Okabe; Marilia Olio; Christian D. Ortega-Ortiz; Adam A. Pack; Daniel M. Palacios; Heidi Pearson; Ester Quintana-Rizzo; Raul Ramírez Barragán; Nicola Ransome; Hiram Rosales-Nanduca; Fred Sharpe; Tasli Shaw; Ken Southerland; Stephanie Stack; Iain Staniland; Janice Straley; Andrew Szabo; Suzie Teerlink; Olga Titova; Jorge Urban-Ramirez; Martin van Aswegen; Marcel Vinicius; Olga von Ziegesar; Briana Witteveen; Janie Wray; Kymberly Yano; Igor Yegin; Denny Zwiefelhofer; Phil Clapham

doi:10.1098/rsos.231462

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Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response

Ted Cheeseman, Jay Barlow, Jo Marie Acebes, Katherina Audley, Lars Bejder, Caitlin Birdsall, Olga Solis Bracamontes, Amanda L. Bradford, Josie Byington, John Calambokidis, …

Royal Society Open Science, Vol.11(2), 231462

2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.231462

PMID: 38420629

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Abstract

Abundance Estimation

Carrying Capacity

Climate Change

Ecology, Conservation And Global Change Biology

Environmental Variables

Marine Heatwave

Mark–recapture Modelling

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark–recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai‘i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014–2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

Details

Title: Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response
Authors/Creators: Ted Cheeseman - Southern Cross University
Jay Barlow - Oregon State University
Jo Marie Acebes - BALYENA.ORG, Brgy. Pangdan, Jagna, Bohol, The Philippines
Katherina Audley - Whales of Guerrero, Portland, OR, USA
Lars Bejder - University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Caitlin Birdsall - The Arctic Eider Society
Olga Solis Bracamontes - Universidad de Guadalajara
Amanda L. Bradford - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center
Josie Byington - Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
John Calambokidis - Cascadia Research Collective
Rachel Cartwright
Jen Cedarleaf - University of Alaska Southeast
Andrea Jacqueline García Chavez - Whales of Guerrero, Portland, OR, USA
Jens Currie - Pacific Whale Foundation, Wailuku, HI, USA
Rouenne Camille De Castro - BALYENA.ORG, Brgy. Pangdan, Jagna, Bohol, The Philippines
Joëlle De Weerdt - AGIR à dom
Nicole Doe - Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
Thomas Doniol-Valcroze - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Karina Dracott - The Arctic Eider Society
Olga Filatova - University of Southern Denmark
Rachel Finn - Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kīhei, HI, USA
Kiirsten R. Flynn - Cascadia Research Collective
John Ford - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Astrid Frisch-Jordán - Ecología y Conservación de Ballenas, AC, Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico
Chris Gabriele
Beth Goodwin - Center for Whale Research
Craig Hayslip - Oregon State University
Jackie Hildering - Marine Education and Research Society, Port McNeill, British Columbia, Canada
Marie C. Hill - University of Hawaii System
Jeff K. Jacobsen - VE Enterprises, McKinleyville, CA, USA
M. Esther Jiménez-López - Departamento Académico de Ingeniería en Pesquerías, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, BCS, Mexico
Meagan Jones - Whale Museum
Nozomi Kobayashi - Okinawa Churashima Foundation
Marc Lammers - Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kīhei, HI, USA
Edward Lyman - Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, Kīhei, HI, USA
Mark Malleson - Center for Whale Research, Friday Harbour, WA, USA
Evgeny Mamaev - FGBU Gosudarstvennyj zapovednik Komandorskij, Commander Islands, Kamchatka Krai, Russia
Pamela Martínez Loustalot - Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur
Annie Masterman - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center
Craig O. Matkin - North Gulf Oceanic Society, Homer, AK, USA
Christie McMillan - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Jeff Moore - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center
John Moran - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center
Janet L. Neilson - Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Gustavus, AK, USA
Hayley Newell - Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Haruna Okabe - Okinawa Churashima Foundation
Marilia Olio - Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Christian D. Ortega-Ortiz - Faculty (United Kingdom)
Adam A. Pack - University of Hawaii at Hilo
Daniel M. Palacios - Oregon State University
Heidi Pearson - University of Alaska Southeast
Ester Quintana-Rizzo - Emmanuel College
Raul Ramírez Barragán - Whales of Guerrero, Portland, OR, USA
Nicola Ransome - Murdoch University
Hiram Rosales-Nanduca - Departamento Académico de Ingeniería en Pesquerías, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, BCS, Mexico
Fred Sharpe - University of California Davis
Tasli Shaw - Humpback Whales of the Salish Sea, Duncan, British Columbia, Canada
Ken Southerland - Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Stephanie Stack - Pacific Whale Foundation, Wailuku, HI, USA
Iain Staniland - International Whaling Commission, Impington, UK
Janice Straley - University of Alaska Southeast
Andrew Szabo - Whale Museum
Suzie Teerlink - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service
Olga Titova - Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution
Jorge Urban-Ramirez - Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur
Martin van Aswegen - University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Marcel Vinicius - Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Olga von Ziegesar - Center for Whale Research
Briana Witteveen - University of Alaska Fairbanks
Janie Wray - North Coast Cetacean Society, Alert Bay, British Columbia, Canada
Kymberly Yano - University of Hawaii System
Igor Yegin
Denny Zwiefelhofer - Happywhale, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Phil Clapham - Vashon Partners (United States)
Publication Details: Royal Society Open Science, Vol.11(2), 231462
Publisher: The Royal Society
Grant note: SPLASH II / Southwest Fisheries Science Center (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100016281) Hurtigruten Foundation
Identifiers: 991005641568807891
Murdoch Affiliation: Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
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Web Of Science research areas: Marine & Freshwater Biology
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