COVID-19 in Ethiopia: A geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

K.A. Alene; Y.A. Gelaw; D.M. Fetene; D.N. Koye; Y.A. Melaku; H. Gesesew; M.M. Birhanu; A.A. Adane; M.D. Muluneh; B.A. Dachew; S. Abrha; A. Aregay; A.A. Ayele; W.M. Bezabhe; K.T. Gebremariam; T. Gebremedhin; A.T. Gebremedhin; L. Gebremichael; A.B. Geleto; H.T. Kassahun; G.D. Kibret; C.T. Leshargie; A. Mekonnen; A.H. Mirkuzie; H. Mohammed; H.G. Tegegn; A.G. Tesema; F.H. Tesfay; B.L. Wubishet; Y. Kinfu

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

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COVID-19 in Ethiopia: A geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

Journal article

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COVID-19 in Ethiopia: A geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death

K.A. Alene, Y.A. Gelaw, D.M. Fetene, D.N. Koye, Y.A. Melaku, H. Gesesew, M.M. Birhanu, A.A. Adane, M.D. Muluneh, B.A. Dachew, …

BMJ Open, Vol.11(2), e044606

2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044606

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Abstract

Background: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Methods: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km. Results: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country’s border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. Conclusion: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

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Title: COVID-19 in Ethiopia: A geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
Authors/Creators: K.A. Alene (Author/Creator) - Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases
Y.A. Gelaw (Author/Creator) - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health
D.M. Fetene (Author/Creator) - Burnet Institute
D.N. Koye (Author/Creator) - The Royal Melbourne Hospital
Y.A. Melaku (Author/Creator) - Flinders University
H. Gesesew (Author/Creator) - College of Medicine and Public Health
M.M. Birhanu (Author/Creator) - Australian Regenerative Medicine Institute
A.A. Adane (Author/Creator) - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health
M.D. Muluneh (Author/Creator) - Western Sydney University
B.A. Dachew (Author/Creator) - School of Population Health
S. Abrha (Author/Creator) - Mekelle University
A. Aregay (Author/Creator) - Mekelle University
A.A. Ayele (Author/Creator) - University of Gondar
W.M. Bezabhe (Author/Creator) - University of Tasmania
K.T. Gebremariam (Author/Creator)
T. Gebremedhin (Author/Creator) - University of Canberra
A.T. Gebremedhin (Author/Creator) - Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases
L. Gebremichael (Author/Creator) - Mekelle University
A.B. Geleto (Author/Creator) - Haramaya University
H.T. Kassahun (Author/Creator) - Griffith University
G.D. Kibret (Author/Creator) - Debre Markos University
C.T. Leshargie (Author/Creator) - Debre Markos University
A. Mekonnen (Author/Creator) - Deakin University
A.H. Mirkuzie (Author/Creator) - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
H. Mohammed (Author/Creator) - Vaccinology and Immunology Research Trials Unit
H.G. Tegegn (Author/Creator) - University of Gondar
A.G. Tesema (Author/Creator) - Mekelle University
F.H. Tesfay (Author/Creator) - School of Public Health
B.L. Wubishet (Author/Creator) - University of Newcastle Australia
Y. Kinfu (Author/Creator) - Qatar University
Publication Details: BMJ Open, Vol.11(2), e044606
Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
Identifiers: 991005542738507891
Copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021
Murdoch Affiliation: Murdoch University
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Industry collaboration; Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 1 Clinical & Life Sciences; 1.104 Virology - General; 1.104.1353 Coronavirus Research
Web Of Science research areas: Medicine, General & Internal
ESI research areas: Clinical Medicine