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Journal article
Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source‐sink dynamics in a fire‐killed, serotinous shrub
Ecology and evolution, Vol.14(6), e11488
2024
Abstract
Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire‐adapted plants in fire‐prone regions such as Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire‐killed shrub
Banksia hookeriana
dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long‐distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post‐fire wind and bird‐mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process‐based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire‐prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process‐based, spatially implicit population model for the well‐studied fire‐killed and serotinous shrub species
B. hookeriana
to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988–2002) and current (2003–2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatio‐temporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of
B. hookeriana
. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter‐fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long‐term persistence (defined as >400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, that is, improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥7) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source‐sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio‐temporal fire regime for
B. hookeriana
, and likely as well for many other fire‐killed species.
We extend a recent mechanistic, process‐based, spatially implicit population model for the well‐studied fire‐killed and serotinous shrub species to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source‐sink dynamic state.
Details
- Title
- Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source‐sink dynamics in a fire‐killed, serotinous shrub
- Authors/Creators
- Rodrigo Souto-Veiga - University of Potsdam Murdoch University Universität HamburgJuergen Groeneveld - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental ResearchNeal J. Enright - Murdoch University, Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityJoseph B. Fontaine - Murdoch University, Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityFlorian Jeltsch - University of Potsdam
- Publication Details
- Ecology and evolution, Vol.14(6), e11488
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons Inc
- Grant note
- Australian Postgraduate Scholarship Award DP170101288 / Australian Research Council Award
- Identifiers
- 991005672070107891
- Copyright
- © 2024 The Authors.
- Murdoch Affiliation
- School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences; Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Sustainability
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Citation topics
- 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology
- 3.40 Forestry
- 3.40.1598 Wildfire Dynamics
- Web Of Science research areas
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- ESI research areas
- Environment/Ecology