Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Freya C. Womersley; Lara L. Sousa; Nicolas E. Humphries; Kátya Abrantes; Gonzalo Araujo; Steffen S. Bach; Adam Barnett; Michael L. Berumen; Sandra Bessudo Lion; Camrin D. Braun; Elizabeth Clingham; Jesse E. M. Cochran; Rafael de la Parra; Stella Diamant; Alistair D. M. Dove; Carlos M. Duarte; Christine L. Dudgeon; Mark V. Erdmann; Eduardo Espinoza; Luciana C. Ferreira; Richard Fitzpatrick; Jaime González Cano; Jonathan R. Green; Hector M. Guzman; Royale Hardenstine; Abdi Hasan; Fábio H. V. Hazin; Alex R. Hearn; Robert E. Hueter; Mohammed Y. Jaidah; Jessica Labaja; Felipe Ladino; Bruno C. L. Macena; Mark G. Meekan; John J. Morris; Bradley M. Norman; Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma; Simon J. Pierce; Lina Maria Quintero; Dení Ramírez-Macías; Samantha D. Reynolds; David P. Robinson; Christoph A. Rohner; David R. L. Rowat; Ana M. M. Sequeira; Marcus Sheaves; Mahmood S. Shivji; Abraham B. Sianipar; Gregory B. Skomal; German Soler; Ismail Syakurachman; Simon R. Thorrold; Michele Thums; John P. Tyminski; D. Harry Webb; Bradley M. Wetherbee; Nuno Queiroz; David W. Sims

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

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Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

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Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Freya C. Womersley, Lara L. Sousa, Nicolas E. Humphries, Kátya Abrantes, Gonzalo Araujo, Steffen S. Bach, Adam Barnett, Michael L. Berumen, Sandra Bessudo Lion, Camrin D. Braun, …

Nature climate change, Vol.14(12), pp.1282-1291

2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

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Abstract

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr −1 ). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

Details

Title: Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping
Authors/Creators: Freya C. Womersley - National Oceanography Centre
Lara L. Sousa
Nicolas E. Humphries - Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom
Kátya Abrantes
Gonzalo Araujo - Qatar University
Steffen S. Bach
Adam Barnett - James Cook University
Michael L. Berumen - King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Sandra Bessudo Lion
Camrin D. Braun - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Elizabeth Clingham
Jesse E. M. Cochran - Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Rafael de la Parra - King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Stella Diamant
Alistair D. M. Dove
Carlos M. Duarte - Australian Institute of Marine Science
Christine L. Dudgeon - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southeast Fisheries Science Center
Mark V. Erdmann - University of Auckland
Eduardo Espinoza
Luciana C. Ferreira - Australian Institute of Marine Science
Richard Fitzpatrick
Jaime González Cano
Jonathan R. Green
Hector M. Guzman - Universidad San Francisco de Quito
Royale Hardenstine - Marine Research Centre
Abdi Hasan - State University of Papua
Fábio H. V. Hazin
Alex R. Hearn
Robert E. Hueter - Mote Marine Laboratory
Mohammed Y. Jaidah
Jessica Labaja
Felipe Ladino
Bruno C. L. Macena - Horta (Italy)
Mark G. Meekan - Australian Institute of Marine Science
John J. Morris
Bradley M. Norman - Murdoch University
Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma
Simon J. Pierce
Lina Maria Quintero
Dení Ramírez-Macías
Samantha D. Reynolds
David P. Robinson
Christoph A. Rohner - Marine Megafauna Foundation
David R. L. Rowat
Ana M. M. Sequeira
Marcus Sheaves
Mahmood S. Shivji
Abraham B. Sianipar - Murdoch University
Gregory B. Skomal
German Soler
Ismail Syakurachman
Simon R. Thorrold
Michele Thums - The University of Western Australia
John P. Tyminski
D. Harry Webb
Bradley M. Wetherbee
Nuno Queiroz - Universidade do Porto
David W. Sims - University of Southampton
Publication Details: Nature climate change, Vol.14(12), pp.1282-1291
Publisher: Springer Nature
Number of pages: 30
Grant note: UK Natural Environment Research Council through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP Studentship: NE/S007210/1 UK Natural Environment Research Council Discovery Science Grant: NE/R00997/X/1 European Research Council within the EU Horizon Programme: 883583 Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia: PTDC/BMA/3536/2021, CEECIND/02857/2018 EU Horizon Programme: 857251
We thank R. R. Reisinger for modelling advice and Global Fishing Watch for provision of shipping data (https://www.globalfishingwatch.org). Funding to support the data analysis was provided by the UK Natural Environment Research Council through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP Studentship (no. NE/S007210/1) to F.C.W., a UK Natural Environment Research Council Discovery Science Grant to D.W.S. (no. NE/R00997/X/1) and a European Research Council Advanced Grant (no. 883583 OCEAN DEOXYFISH) to D.W.S. within the EU Horizon 2020 Programme. Additional funding support was provided by Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (nos. PTDC/BMA/3536/2021 and CEECIND/02857/2018) and the EU Horizon 2020 Programme (no. 857251 to N.Q.) D.W.S. was supported by a Marine Biological Association Senior Research Fellowship. Acknowledgement of the funding sources supporting whale shark tagging and other contributions is given in full in the Supplementary Information. This research was conducted as part of the Global Shark Movement Project (www.globalsharkmovement.org).
Identifiers: 991005707254507891
Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024
Murdoch Affiliation: Harry Butler Institute
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology; 3.2 Marine Biology; 3.2.92 Fisheries Ecology
Web Of Science research areas: Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
ESI research areas: Environment/Ecology