CoralPOP: A morphology-based coral population model for transferable reef management projections

Nicola K. Browne; Dagmawi Tadesse; Ekaterina Ovsyanikova; Rio Button; Michael Cuttler; Dan Marrable; Foad Favier; Amelia Wenger

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111672

Back

CoralPOP: A morphology-based coral population model for transferable reef management projections

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

CoralPOP: A morphology-based coral population model for transferable reef management projections

Nicola K. Browne, Dagmawi Tadesse, Ekaterina Ovsyanikova, Rio Button, Michael Cuttler, Dan Marrable, Foad Favier and Amelia Wenger

Ecological modelling, Vol.520, 111672

2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111672

Files and links (1)

pdf

Published11.92 MBDownload View

Open Access CC BY V4.0

Abstract

Bleaching

Climate change

Coral reef management

Cyclones

Mechanistic models

Many coral reef models now capture complex demographic, trait-based or ecosystem dynamics, supporting detailed projections under climate stress. However, their application is often constrained by extensive site-specific data needs, specialised modelling expertise and reliance on proprietary software, limiting accessibility and practical transferability. Here we develop CoralPOP, a morphology-based, size-structured coral population model that uses commonly collected benthic data and a small set of calibrated parameters to simulate trajectories under bleaching and cyclone scenarios. The model advances coral community forecasting by: (1) morphology-based parameterisation that balances ecological realism with data accessibility, (2) global default parameters enabling deployment without extensive local datasets, (3) parsimonious calibration focused on three mechanistically important parameters and (4) demonstrated transferability, validated across four reef types and two regions (Great Barrier Reef and the Caribbean). Applications include exploring disturbance scenarios and initial community states to assess reef resilience and guide restoration and protection priorities. [Display omitted]

Details

Title: CoralPOP: A morphology-based coral population model for transferable reef management projections
Authors/Creators: Nicola K. Browne - The University of Queensland
Dagmawi Tadesse - Murdoch University
Ekaterina Ovsyanikova - The University of Queensland
Rio Button - The University of Queensland
Michael Cuttler - Oceans Institute
Dan Marrable - Curtin University
Foad Favier - Curtin University
Amelia Wenger - The University of Queensland
Publication Details: Ecological modelling, Vol.520, 111672
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Number of pages: 19
Identifiers: 991005898164007891
Murdoch Affiliation: Murdoch University
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

Source: SDGs in the Output

Metrics

1 Record Views