Crimino-forensic applications to arson prevention: spatiotemporal factors

Tess Meyer; David Keatley; John Coumbaros; Brendan Chapman

doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2026.101400

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Crimino-forensic applications to arson prevention: spatiotemporal factors

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Crimino-forensic applications to arson prevention: spatiotemporal factors

Tess Meyer, David Keatley, John Coumbaros and Brendan Chapman

Science & justice, Vol.66(2), 101400

2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2026.101400

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Abstract

Arson

Crimino-forensic

Fire-setting

Hotspot

Predictive policing

Spatio-temporal analysis

Crime is known to distribute unevenly across space and time, leading to the formation of crime clusters. Similarly, incidences of arson have shown clustering, which allows for the investigation of hotspotting techniques for analysis. Geographical hotspot mapping typically only views arson through a single lens, but predictions may be improved by including criminological factors in analysis and through the integration of temporal analysis with spatial analysis. This study aimed to incorporate additional variables alongside traditional geographical hotspotting to investigate arson using Western Australian bushfire data from 2017 to 2023. The data were analysed temporally and spatially for discernible trends in fire-setting in the suspicious and deliberately lit subset. The geographical hotspots were measured against criminological factors that were hypothesised to facilitate (e.g. proximity to petrol service stations and main roads) or deter (e.g. proximity to police/fire stations and water bodies) arson. When analysing the temporal characteristics of the data increased number of bushfires occurred during warmer seasons and times of leisure such as weekends. Spatial clustering of fires was also demonstrated through 21 hotspots, all concentrated around urban and populated areas. When measuring these geographical hotspots against the criminological characteristics, a statistically significant difference was observed between arson facilitators and deterrents. This is the first study to combine criminological theory, spatio-temporal analysis, and geographic hotspotting techniques to establish fire patterns and clusters. This research paves the way for the development of a proximity prediction method which may identify areas targeted by fire-setters and allow for preventative policing in these locations.

Details

Title: Crimino-forensic applications to arson prevention: spatiotemporal factors
Authors/Creators: Tess Meyer - School of Medical, Molecular and Forensic Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia 6150, Australia
David Keatley - Murdoch University, School of Law and Criminology
John Coumbaros - Murdoch University, School of Medical, Molecular and Forensic Sciences
Brendan Chapman - Murdoch University, School of Medical, Molecular and Forensic Sciences
Publication Details: Science & justice, Vol.66(2), 101400
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Number of pages: 11
Identifiers: 991005861091707891
Murdoch Affiliation: Centre for Biosecurity and One Health; School of Law and Criminology; School of Medical, Molecular and Forensic Sciences
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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#16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

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InCites Highlights

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Citation topics: 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology; 3.40 Forestry; 3.40.1598 Wildfire Dynamics
Web Of Science research areas: Medicine, Legal; Pathology
ESI research areas: Clinical Medicine