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Currency option pricing and realized volatility
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Currency option pricing and realized volatility

M. Manzur, A. Hoque and G. Poitras
The Banking and Finance Review, Vol.2(1), pp.73-86
2010
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Abstract

Volatility is a key parameter in currency option pricing. This paper examines alternative specifications of the volatility input to the Black-Scholes option pricing procedure. The focus is the relative performance of implied, realized, and GARCH-based models as predictors of market volatility to forecast currency options prices. Using exchange-traded, daily and intra-daily data for three major European currencies, the results indicate that the realized volatility model tends to outperform the other two specifications, both in-sample and out-of-sample. This result is intuitively appealing and expected to facilitate resolution of other problems in risk management applications.

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