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Journal article
De-escalation and diplomacy: disasters as drivers of reduced conflict risks in the Indo-Pacific
Australian Journal of International Affairs
2025
Abstract
Interest in the impact of disasters on conflict risks is burgeoning. This is particularly the case for the Indo-Pacific region, which is highly vulnerable to disasters and experiences geopolitical competition as well as several armed conflicts. So far, the literature has predominantly focussed on the impact of disasters on higher conflict risks. We argue that considering the option that disasters can (temporarily) reduce conflict risks would benefit research, politics, and practice. To illustrate this argument, we focus on two possible mechanisms. First, disasters can catalyse short-term declines in armed conflict intensity by providing constraints to the conflict parties. This mechanism is supported by evidence from the civil wars in Kashmir (after the 2005 earthquake) and Bangladesh (after cyclone Sidr in 2007). Second, disasters provide opportunities for diplomacy between states, which can in turn reduce conflict risks, even though such diplomacy might suffer from a politicisation of disaster relief. Evidence from Australian disaster diplomacy after the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake (Indonesia) and the 2022 volcanic eruption in Tonga supports this mechanism. A more comprehensive, less conflict-focussed ontology would benefit further research on disasters and conflict.
Details
- Title
- De-escalation and diplomacy: disasters as drivers of reduced conflict risks in the Indo-Pacific
- Authors/Creators
- Tobias Ide (Author) - Murdoch University, School of Humanities, Arts and Social SciencesAli Hayes (Author) - Murdoch University, School of Humanities, Arts and Social SciencesIndah Larasati (Author) - Indo-Pacific Research CentreChloe Canavan (Author)
- Publication Details
- Australian Journal of International Affairs
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
- Number of pages
- 19
- Grant note
- Australian Department of Defence under the Strategic Policy Grants Program This research was funded by the Australian Department of Defence under the Strategic Policy Grants Program.
- Identifiers
- 991005736628107891
- Copyright
- © 2025 The Author(s).
- Murdoch Affiliation
- School of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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- 6 Social Sciences
- 6.27 Political Science
- 6.27.50 International Relations
- Web Of Science research areas
- International Relations
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- Social Sciences, general