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Journal article
Disentangling the uncertainties in regional projections for Australia
Journal of Southern Hemisphere earth systems science, Vol.75(3), ES25015
2025
Abstract
Understanding, quantifying and visualising projected ranges of future regional climate change is important for informing robust climate change impact assessments. Here, we examine projections of Australian sub-continental regionally averaged surface air temperature and precipitation in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) global and Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Australasia regional model ensembles and illustrate the relative sources of uncertainty from emissions scenarios, models and internal climate variability. As expected, the uncertainty in temperature change for all regions by the end of the century is predominantly determined by the emissions scenario. Here, we examine a low and high emissions scenario, bookending a range of plausible cases. In contrast, the uncertainty in precipitation changes towards the end of the 21st Century is largely related to model-to-model differences, in particular owing to the differences between global models, with regional models contributing a smaller, but still significant, source of uncertainty. Regional models can significantly alter precipitation projections; however, we find few cases of consistency across the regional models. Decadal variability is an important contributing factor for precipitation uncertainty for the entire 21st Century. Large changes in interannual precipitation variability are projected by some climate models by the end of the 21st Century, and these changes tend to be well correlated to mean precipitation changes. Robust responses to climate change must account for all of these dimensions in a structured way.
Details
- Title
- Disentangling the uncertainties in regional projections for Australia
- Authors/Creators
- Sugata NarseyMichael GroseFrancois DelageGen TolhurstChristine ChungAlicia TakbashGhyslaine BoschatMalcolm KingAcacia PeplerMarcus ThatcherBenjamin NgSon TruongChun-Hsu SuEmma HowardChristian StassenMitchell BlackDavid Jones - Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation TrustRichard MatearSarah ChapmanJozef SyktusRalph TrancosoGiovanni Di VirgilioRishav GoyalJatin Kala - Murdoch University, Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityVanessa RoundJason P. Evans - UNSW Sydney
- Publication Details
- Journal of Southern Hemisphere earth systems science, Vol.75(3), ES25015
- Publisher
- CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Bureau of Meteorology. ; CLAYTON SOUTH
- Number of pages
- 28
- Identifiers
- 991005814049107891
- Copyright
- © 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)).
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Sustainability; School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences; Murdoch University
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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