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Does the expectations trap render the Natural-Rate Model invalid in the disinflationary zone?
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Does the expectations trap render the Natural-Rate Model invalid in the disinflationary zone?

R. Leeson
Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol.21(1), pp.95-101
1997
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Abstract

This paper questions the validity of the Natural-Rate Expectations Augmented Phillips curve (N-REAP) model by examining the concept of an ‘expectations trap’. If a Phillips curve becomes horizontal at higher levels of unemployment—as it did in the curves derived from a century of data by Phillips and Lipsey—then policy-induced increases in unemployment can reduce neither inflation nor inflationary expectations. The expectations trap, therefore, tends to render the policy conclusions derived from the N-REAP model either invalid or intolerably slow in the disinflation region.

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Citation topics
6 Social Sciences
6.10 Economics
6.10.22 Monetary Policy
Web Of Science research areas
Economics
ESI research areas
Economics & Business
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