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Drought intensity and duration interact to magnify losses in primary productivity
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Drought intensity and duration interact to magnify losses in primary productivity

Timothy Ohlert, Melinda D Smith, Scott L Collins, Alan K Knapp, Jeffrey S Dukes, Osvaldo Sala, Kate D Wilkins, Seth M Munson, Maggie I Anderson, Meghan L Avolio, …
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), Vol.390(6770), pp.284-289
2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ads8144
PMID: 41100624

Abstract

Acclimatization Biomass Droughts Ecosystem Grassland Time Factors
As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.

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