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Journal article
Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change
Heliyon, Vol.9(6), e17182
2023
Abstract
Objectives
Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change.
Methodology
Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020–2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors.
Findings
The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk.
Conclusion
COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change.
Implications
Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.
Details
- Title
- Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change
- Authors/Creators
- Xiaolan Xie - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesMengmeng Hao - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesFangyu Ding - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesTobias Ide - Murdoch University, School of Humanities, Arts and Social SciencesDavid Helman - Institute of Environmental Sciences, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food & Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, 7610001, IsraelJürgen Scheffran - Universität HamburgQian Wang - Nuffield Orthopaedic CentreYushu Qian - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchShuai Chen - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchJiajie Wu - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchTian Ma - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchQuansheng Ge - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, ChinaDong Jiang - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
- Publication Details
- Heliyon, Vol.9(6), e17182
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- Identifiers
- 991005585958907891
- Copyright
- © 2023 The Authors.
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Murdoch University
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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- Citation topics
- 6 Social Sciences
- 6.27 Political Science
- 6.27.50 International Relations
- Web Of Science research areas
- Political Science
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- Social Sciences, general