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Journal article
Fifteen years of regional climate downscaling in CORDEX-Australasia
PLOS Climate, Vol.5(9), e0001066
2026
Abstract
Regional climate modelling plays a central role in understanding and projecting climate change across Australasia, a region characterised by complex topography, diverse climate regimes, and high exposure to climate extremes. Over the past fifteen years, CORDEX-Australasia has coordinated regional climate downscaling under an international framework while operating alongside complementary national and state-based initiatives. Here we synthesise the evolution, achievements, scientific advances, applications, and future priorities of regional climate modelling in the region. Successive CORDEX-CMIP5 and CORDEX-CMIP6 ensembles have produced the largest coordinated high-resolution projection datasets for Australasia. Regional climate models demonstrate clear added value over their driving global climate models, particularly in representing temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, coastal processes, and complex terrain. CMIP6-based projections show robust agreement on substantial 21st-century warming, with uncertainty dominated by emissions scenarios, while precipitation responses remain more regionally heterogeneous. Advances in convection-permitting modelling, benchmarking frameworks, and bias-correction methods have further improved process representation and evaluation. Regional projections now underpin applications in water resources, agriculture, disaster risk reduction, energy, health, and national climate services. Progress has been supported by shared infrastructure through the National Computational Infrastructure and strengthened coordination via the National Partnership for Climate Projections, highlighting strong synergies between State and Federal programs contributing to CORDEX. Key challenges remain including computational demands, persistent model biases, precipitation uncertainty, ensemble design, and translating complex multi-model information into decision-ready guidance. Strategic priorities include kilometre-scale (convection-permitting) modelling, enhanced Earth system coupling, coordinated super-ensembles, responsible integration of artificial intelligence approaches, strengthened observational constraints, and expanded support for vulnerable remote Australian islands and Pacific Island nations. Sustained investment, collaboration, and innovation will be essential to deliver robust, high-resolution climate information for adaptation and resilience across Australasia.
Details
- Title
- Fifteen years of regional climate downscaling in CORDEX-Australasia
- Authors/Creators
- Jason P. Evans - UNSW SydneyMarcus Thatcher - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationDaniel Argüeso - Universitat de les Illes BalearsAlejandro Di Luca - Université du Québec à MontréalRalph Trancoso - The University of QueenslandJulia Andrys - Murdoch University, School of Environmental and Conservation SciencesSarah Chapman - The University of QueenslandGiovanni Di Virgilio - NSW Department of Planning and EnvironmentAndrew Dowdy - Bureau of MeteorologyLluís Fita - Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiquePeter Gibson - Earth Sciences New ZealandMichael Grose - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationEmma Howard - Bureau of MeteorologyFei Ji - Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningJatin Kala - Murdoch University, Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityJack Katzfey - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationLeena Khadke - ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System ScienceOmer Mughal - Government of Western AustraliaBenjamin Ng - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationNeelesh Rampal - Earth Sciences New ZealandChristian Stassen - Bureau of MeteorologyStuart Stephen - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationChun Hsu Su - Bureau of MeteorologyJozef Syktus - The University of QueenslandSon Hoang Nguyen - Trường ĐH Nguyễn Tất ThànhHarvey Ye - Bureau of Meteorology
- Publication Details
- PLOS Climate, Vol.5(9), e0001066
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science
- Identifiers
- 991005927417507891
- Copyright
- © 2026 Evans et al.
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Sustainability; School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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