Info-gap theory to determine cost-effective eradication of invasive species

Yang Liu; Melissa L. Thomas; Grey T. Coupland; Penghao Wang; Dan Zheng; Simon J. McKirdy

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-29571-3

Back

Info-gap theory to determine cost-effective eradication of invasive species

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Info-gap theory to determine cost-effective eradication of invasive species

Yang Liu, Melissa L. Thomas, Grey T. Coupland, Penghao Wang, Dan Zheng and Simon J. McKirdy

Scientific reports, Vol.13(1), 2744

2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29571-3

PMID: 36797315

Files and links (1)

pdf

Published2.41 MBDownload View

Published (Version of Record)CC BY V4.0, Open Access

Abstract

Ecological modelling

Invasive species

Invasive species eradication campaigns often fail due to stochastic arrival events, unpredictable detectability and incorrect resource allocation. Severe uncertainty in model parameter estimates may skew the eradication policy results. Using info-gap decision theory, this research aims to provide managers with a method to quantify their confidence in realizing successful eradication of particular invasive species within their specified eradication budgets (i.e. allowed eradication cost) in face of information-gaps. The potential introduction of the Asian house gecko Hemidactylus frenatus to Barrow Island, Australia is used as a case study to illustrate the model. Results of this research demonstrate that, more robustness to uncertainty in the model parameters can be earnt by (1) increasing the allowed eradication cost (2) investment in pre-border quarantine and border inspection (i.e. prevention) or (3) investment in post-border detection surveillance. The combination of a post-border spatial dispersal model and info-gap decision theory demonstrates a novel and spatially efficient method for managers to evaluate the robustness of eradication policies for incursion of invasive species with unexpected behaviour. These methods can be used to provide insight into the success of management goals, in particular the eradication of invasive species on islands or in broader mainland areas. These insights will assist in avoiding eradication failure and wasteful budget allocation and labour investment.

Details

Title: Info-gap theory to determine cost-effective eradication of invasive species
Authors/Creators: Yang Liu - Murdoch University
Melissa L. Thomas - Perth, WA 6150 Australia
Grey T. Coupland - Perth, WA 6150 Australia
Penghao Wang - Perth, WA 6150 Australia Perth, WA 6150 Australia
Dan Zheng - Shandong, 266109 People’s Republic of China
Simon J. McKirdy - Perth, WA 6150 Australia
Publication Details: Scientific reports, Vol.13(1), 2744
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK
Identifiers: 991005579454507891
Murdoch Affiliation: Murdoch University; Harry Butler Institute; Centre for Biosecurity and One Health
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

Source: InCites

Metrics

46 File views/ downloads

156 Record Views

4 Times Cited - Web of Science

InCites Highlights

These are selected metrics from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool, related to this output

Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology; 3.40 Forestry; 3.40.86 Plant Communities
Web Of Science research areas: Ecology
ESI research areas: Environment/Ecology