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Mapping the hypothetical: A combined approach to lead prioritisation in cold case reviews of no-body homicides
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Mapping the hypothetical: A combined approach to lead prioritisation in cold case reviews of no-body homicides

Chayleigh Stopher, Karsten Bettels and David Keatley
International journal of police science & management, Online First
2026

Abstract

analysis of competing hypotheses cold case investigation matrix forecasting policing temporal analysis
Investigations into major crimes and cold cases are often faced with an abundance of potential leads. What is required is a systematic method for organising, prioritising, and evaluating them. Although developing timelines and investigative leads is a familiar skill among investigators, the challenge lies in managing and prioritising these leads explicitly and effectively. This article outlines a novel combined approach that merges temporal analyses and the analysis of competing hypotheses to offer a synthesised effective means of explicitly stating, structuring, and organising leads in criminal cases. The approach is designed to map investigative pathways, reduce resource load, and provide a structured process for lead prioritisation. A real-world inspired case is used to exemplify the process which outlines how case strategies may be improved through hypothesis evaluation, supporting resource allocation, and assisting the prioritisation of leads.

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