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Published (Version of Record)CC BY-NC V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Modelling accessibility of adult neurology care in Australia, 2020–2034
BMJ neurology open, Vol.5(1), e000407
2023
PMCID: PMC10151858
PMID: 37144009
Abstract
Introduction
In 2015/2016, annual national expenditure on neurological conditions exceeded $A3 billion. However, a comprehensive study of the Australian neurological workforce and supply/demand dynamics has not previously been undertaken.
Methods
Current neurological workforce was defined using neurologist survey and other sources. Workforce supply modelling used ordinary differential equations to simulate neurologist influx and attrition. Demand for neurology care was estimated by reference to literature regarding incidence and prevalence of selected conditions. Differences in supply versus demand for neurological workforce were calculated. Potential interventions to increase workforce were simulated and effects on supply versus demand estimated.
Results
Modelling of the workforce from 2020 to 2034 predicted an increase in neurologist number from 620 to 896. We estimated a 2034 capacity of 638 024 Initial and 1 269 112 Review encounters annually, and deficits against demand estimated as 197 137 and 881 755, respectively. These deficits were proportionately greater in regional Australia, which has 31% of Australia’s population (Australian Bureau of Statistics) but is served by only 4.1% of its neurologists as determined by our 2020 survey of Australia and New Zealand Association of Neurologists members. Nationally, simulated additions to the neurology workforce had some effect on the review encounter supply deficit (37.4%), but in Regional Australia, this impact was only 17.2%.
Interpretation
Modelling of the neurologist workforce in Australia for 2020–2034 demonstrates a significant shortfall of supply relative to current and projected demand. Interventions to increase neurologist workforce may attenuate this shortfall but will not eliminate it. Thus, additional interventions are needed, including improved efficiency and additional use of support staff.
Details
- Title
- Modelling accessibility of adult neurology care in Australia, 2020–2034
- Authors/Creators
- Steve Simpson-Yap - Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, AustraliaFederico Frascoli - Swinburne University of TechnologyLucinda Harrison - The University of MelbourneCharles Malpas - The Royal Melbourne HospitalJames Burrell - Concord Repatriation General HospitalNicholas Child - North Shore HospitalLauren P Giles - Launceston General HospitalChristian Lueck - Australian National UniversityMerrilee Needham - Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational ScienceBenjamin Tsang - Sunshine Coast University HospitalTomas Kalincik - The Royal Melbourne Hospital
- Publication Details
- BMJ neurology open, Vol.5(1), e000407
- Publisher
- BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
- Grant note
- 21-2-0000000065 / Multiple Sclerosis Australia (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000924)
- Identifiers
- 991005623562507891
- Copyright
- © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023.
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Health Futures Institute; Centre for Molecular Medicine and Innovative Therapeutics
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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