Modelling mammalian extinction and forecasting recovery: koalas at Iluka (NSW, Australia)

Daniel Lunney; Lisa O'Neill; Alison Matthews; William B Sherwin

doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00233-6

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Modelling mammalian extinction and forecasting recovery: koalas at Iluka (NSW, Australia)

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Modelling mammalian extinction and forecasting recovery: koalas at Iluka (NSW, Australia)

Daniel Lunney, Lisa O'Neill, Alison Matthews and William B Sherwin

Biological conservation, Vol.106(1), pp.101-113

2002

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00233-6

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Abstract

Extinction

Koala

Population viability analysis

Recovery

This study investigated the recent demise of a koala population at Iluka in eastern Australia and demonstrates the potential role of population viability analysis (PVA) in the recovery and management of similar small populations. Information about the Iluka population was reconstructed from various sources, including community knowledge, wildlife carer data, and from a radiotracking program. Modelling scenarios were constructed to identify which factors may be critical to the survival of the Iluka population and which management options could provide the most effective means of its recovery. The model suggested that even substantial improvements in mortality and fertility alone do not prevent the modelled population declining towards extinction. Rebuilding of the koala population is likely to require guaranteed regular immigration of animals of both sexes in conjunction with considerable improvements in population mortality and fertility. This highlights the importance of the metapopulation for recruitment, an outcome that was not expected prior to modelling. These modelling outcomes suggest that the management of small, local populations of koalas will need a concerted management effort focusing on multiple causes of population change. Local management actions, such as reducing road deaths and managing habitat and fire, must be accompanied by knowledge of the larger geographical population.

Details

Title: Modelling mammalian extinction and forecasting recovery: koalas at Iluka (NSW, Australia)
Authors/Creators: Daniel Lunney - National Parks and Wildlife Service
Lisa O'Neill - National Parks and Wildlife Service
Alison Matthews - National Parks and Wildlife Service
William B Sherwin - School of Biological Sciences, University of New South Wales, NSW 2052, Australia
Publication Details: Biological conservation, Vol.106(1), pp.101-113
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
Identifiers: 991005579400807891
Copyright: © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd
Murdoch Affiliation: Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Citation topics: 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology; 3.40 Forestry; 3.40.195 Biodiversity Conservation
Web Of Science research areas: Biodiversity Conservation; Ecology; Environmental Sciences
ESI research areas: Environment/Ecology