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Published (Version of Record)CC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Personalized federated learning for predicting disability progression in multiple sclerosis using real-world routine clinical data
NPJ digital medicine, Vol.8(1), 478
2025
PMID: 40707601
Abstract
Early prediction of disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains challenging despite its critical importance for therapeutic decision-making. We present the first systematic evaluation of personalized federated learning (PFL) for 2-year MS disability progression prediction, leveraging multi-center real-world data from over 26,000 patients. While conventional federated learning (FL) enables privacy-aware collaborative modeling, it remains vulnerable to institutional data heterogeneity. PFL overcomes this challenge by adapting shared models to local data distributions without compromising privacy. We evaluated two personalization strategies: a novel AdaptiveDualBranchNet architecture with selective parameter sharing, and personalized fine-tuning of global models, benchmarked against centralized and client-specific approaches. Baseline FL underperformed relative to personalized methods, whereas personalization significantly improved performance, with personalized FedProx and FedAVG achieving ROC-AUC scores of 0.8398 ± 0.0019 and 0.8384 ± 0.0014, respectively. These findings establish personalization as critical for scalable, privacy-aware clinical prediction models and highlight its potential to inform earlier intervention strategies in MS and beyond.
Details
- Title
- Personalized federated learning for predicting disability progression in multiple sclerosis using real-world routine clinical data
- Authors/Creators
- Ashkan Pirmani - KU LeuvenEdward De Brouwer - KU LeuvenÁdám Arany - KU LeuvenMartijn Oldenhof - KU LeuvenAntoine Passemiers - KU LeuvenAxel Faes - Hasselt UniversityTomas Kalincik - The Royal Melbourne HospitalSerkan Ozakbas - İzmir University of EconomicsRiadh Gouider - Hôpital Razi de La ManoubaBarbara Willekens - Antwerp University HospitalDana Horakova - Charles UniversityEva Kubala Havrdova - Charles UniversityFrancesco Patti - Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences and Advanced Technologies, GF Ingrassia, Catania, ItalyAlexandre Prat - Université de MontréalAlessandra Lugaresi - University of BolognaValentina Tomassini - University of Chieti-PescaraPierre Grammond - Centre intégré de santé et de services sociaux de Chaudière-AppalachesElisabetta Cartechini - University of MacerataIzanne Roos - The Royal Melbourne HospitalCavit Boz - Karadeniz Technical UniversityRaed Alroughani - Amiri HospitalMaria Pia Amato - University of FlorenceKatherine Buzzard - Box Hill HospitalJeannette Lechner-Scott - Hunter Medical Research InstituteJoana Guimarães - Universidade do PortoClaudio Solaro - Ente Ospedaliero Ospedali GallieraOliver Gerlach - Zuyderland Medisch CentrumAysun Soysal - Bakırköy Psychiatric HospitalJens Kuhle - University of BaselJose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo - Hospital de GaldakaoDaniele Spitaleri - Azienda Ospedaliera S.Giuseppe MoscatiTunde Csepany - University of DebrecenBart Van Wijmeersch - Noorderhart Hospitals, Rehabilitation & MS University MS Centre, Hasselt-Pelt, BelgiumRadek Ampapa - Hospital JihlavaJulie Prevost - Cegep de Saint JeromeSamia J Khoury - American University of Beirut Medical CenterVincent Van Pesch - Cliniques Universitaires Saint-LucNevin John - Monash UniversityDavide Maimone - University of ColomboBianca Weinstock-Guttman - National MS Center MelsbroekGuy Laureys - Ghent University HospitalPamela McCombe - Royal Brisbane and Women's HospitalYolanda Blanco - Hospital Clínic de BarcelonaAyse Altintas - Koç UniversityAbdullah Al-Asmi - Sultan Qaboos UniversityJustin Garber - Westmead HospitalAnneke Van der Walt - The Alfred HospitalHelmut Butzkueven - The Alfred HospitalKoen de Gans - Groene Hart ZiekenhuisCsilla Rozsa - Jahn Ferenc Dél-Pesti Kórház és RendelőintézetBruce Taylor - Royal Hobart HospitalTalal Al-Harbi - King Fahad Specialist HospitalAttila Sas - University of MiskolcCecilia Rajda - University of SzegedOrla Gray - South Eastern Health and Social Care TrustDanny Decoo - AlmaWilliam M Carroll - Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational Science, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, AustraliaAllan G Kermode - Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational ScienceMarzena Fabis-Pedrini - Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational ScienceDeborah Mason - Christchurch HospitalAngel Perez-Sempere - Hospital General Universitario de Alicante Doctor BalmisMihaela Simu - Victor Babeș University of Medicine and Pharmacy TimișoaraNeil Shuey - St Vincent's Hospital MelbourneBhim Singhal - Bombay HospitalMarija Cauchi - Mater Dei HospitalTodd A Hardy - Concord Repatriation General HospitalSudarshini Ramanathan - The University of SydneyPatrice Lalive - University Hospital of GenevaCarmen-Adella Sirbu - Carol Davila University of Medicine and PharmacyStella Hughes - University of UlsterTamara Castillo Trivino - Biogipuzkoa Health Research InstituteLiesbet M Peeters - Hasselt UniversityYves Moreau - KU Leuven
- Publication Details
- NPJ digital medicine, Vol.8(1), 478
- Publisher
- NATURE PORTFOLIO
- Number of pages
- 15
- Identifiers
- 991005797756507891
- Copyright
- © The Author(s) 2025
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Institute for Immunology and Infectious Diseases
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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- Domestic collaboration
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- Citation topics
- 1 Clinical & Life Sciences
- 1.155 Medical Ethics
- 1.155.2774 Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Medicine
- Web Of Science research areas
- Health Care Sciences & Services
- Medical Informatics
- ESI research areas
- Clinical Medicine