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Published (Version of Record)CC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia
PloS one, Vol.7(8), e42391
2012
PMCID: PMC3413722
PMID: 22879960
Abstract
Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response.
Details
- Title
- Predicting the Benefits of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Exclusion from Commercial Plantations in Australia
- Authors/Creators
- David C. Cook - Agriculture and FoodShuang Liu - Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research CentreJacqueline Edwards - Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research CentreOscar N. Villalta - Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research CentreJean-Philippe Aurambout - Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research CentreDarren J. Kriticos - Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research CentreAndre Drenth - The University of QueenslandPaul J. De Barro - Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre
- Publication Details
- PloS one, Vol.7(8), e42391
- Publisher
- Public Library Science
- Number of pages
- 9
- Grant note
- CRC10162 / Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity under Australian Government
- Identifiers
- 991005578642907891
- Copyright
- © Cook et al.
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Harry Butler Institute; Centre for Biosecurity and One Health
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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Source: InCites
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InCites Highlights
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Citation topics
- 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology
- 3.267 Virology - Plant
- 3.267.356 Plant Virus Interactions
- Web Of Science research areas
- Ecology
- ESI research areas
- Environment/Ecology