Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

D. Jiang; T. Ma; M. Hao; F. Ding; K. Sun; Q. Wang; T. Kang; D. Wang; S. Zhao; M. Li; X. Xie; P. Fan; Z. Meng; S. Zhang; Y. Qian; J. Edwards; S. Chen; Y. Li

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0267128

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Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

D. Jiang, T. Ma, M. Hao, F. Ding, K. Sun, Q. Wang, T. Kang, D. Wang, S. Zhao, M. Li, …

PLoS ONE, Vol.17(4), Art. e0267128

2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267128

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Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world’s domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.

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Title: Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world
Authors/Creators: D. Jiang (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
T. Ma (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
M. Hao (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
F. Ding (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
K. Sun (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Q. Wang (Author/Creator) - Angkor Hospital for Children
T. Kang (Author/Creator) - Peking University
D. Wang (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
S. Zhao (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
M. Li (Author/Creator) - Nantong University
X. Xie (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
P. Fan (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
Z. Meng (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
S. Zhang (Author/Creator) - Computer Network Information Center
Y. Qian (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
J. Edwards (Author/Creator) - Murdoch University
S. Chen (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Y. Li (Author/Creator) - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Publication Details: PLoS ONE, Vol.17(4), Art. e0267128
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Identifiers: 991005541185707891
Copyright: © 2022 Jiang et al.
Murdoch Affiliation: School of Veterinary Medicine; Centre for Biosecurity and One Health
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 1 Clinical & Life Sciences; 1.104 Virology - General; 1.104.1882 Livestock Viral Threats
Web Of Science research areas: Veterinary Sciences
ESI research areas: Plant & Animal Science