Journal article
Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world
PLoS ONE, Vol.17(4), Art. e0267128
2022
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world’s domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.
Details
- Title
- Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world
- Authors/Creators
- D. Jiang (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesT. Ma (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesM. Hao (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesF. Ding (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesK. Sun (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesQ. Wang (Author/Creator) - Angkor Hospital for ChildrenT. Kang (Author/Creator) - Peking UniversityD. Wang (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesS. Zhao (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchM. Li (Author/Creator) - Nantong UniversityX. Xie (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesP. Fan (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchZ. Meng (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchS. Zhang (Author/Creator) - Computer Network Information CenterY. Qian (Author/Creator) - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchJ. Edwards (Author/Creator) - Murdoch UniversityS. Chen (Author/Creator) - University of Chinese Academy of SciencesY. Li (Author/Creator) - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Publication Details
- PLoS ONE, Vol.17(4), Art. e0267128
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science
- Identifiers
- 991005541185707891
- Copyright
- © 2022 Jiang et al.
- Murdoch Affiliation
- School of Veterinary Medicine; Centre for Biosecurity and One Health
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Citation topics
- 1 Clinical & Life Sciences
- 1.104 Virology - General
- 1.104.1882 Livestock Viral Threats
- Web Of Science research areas
- Veterinary Sciences
- ESI research areas
- Plant & Animal Science