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Journal article
Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.120(11), Art. e2208120120
2023
PMID: 36877837
Abstract
Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.
Details
- Title
- Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States
- Authors/Creators
- Kimberley T Davis - University of MontanaMarcos D Robles - The Nature ConservancyKerry B Kemp - The Nature ConservancyPhilip E Higuera - University of MontanaTeresa Chapman - The Nature ConservancyKerry L Metlen - The Nature ConservancyJamie L Peeler - University of MontanaKyle C Rodman - Northern Arizona UniversityTravis Woolley - The Nature ConservancyRobert N Addington - The Nature ConservancyBrian J Buma - Department of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado-Denver, Denver, CO 80204C Alina Cansler - University of WashingtonMichael J Case - The Nature ConservancyBrandon M Collins - University of California, BerkeleyJonathan D Coop - Western Colorado UniversitySolomon Z Dobrowski - University of MontanaNathan S Gill - Texas Tech UniversityCollin Haffey - Division of EnergyLucas B Harris - Pennsylvania State UniversityBrian J Harvey - University of WashingtonRyan D Haugo - The Nature ConservancyMatthew D Hurteau - University of New MexicoDominik Kulakowski - Clark UniversityCaitlin E Littlefield - Conservation Science PartnersLisa A McCauley - The Nature ConservancyNicholas Povak - Pacific Southwest Research StationKristen L Shive - The Nature ConservancyEdward Smith - The Nature ConservancyJens T Stevens - University of New MexicoCamille S Stevens-Rumann - Colorado State UniversityAlan H Taylor - Pennsylvania State UniversityAlan J Tepley - Cal Poly HumboldtDerek J N Young - University of California, DavisRobert A Andrus - Washington State UniversityMike A Battaglia - Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO 80526Julia K Berkey - Louisiana Department of Natural ResourcesSebastian U Busby - Portland State UniversityAmanda R Carlson - University of Wisconsin–MadisonMarin E Chambers - Colorado State UniversityErich Kyle Dodson - Rocky Mountain Research StationDaniel C Donato - University of WashingtonWilliam M Downing - Oregon State UniversityPaula J Fornwalt - Rocky Mountain Research StationJoshua S Halofsky - University of WashingtonAshley Hoffman - Clark UniversityAndrés Holz - Portland State UniversityJose M Iniguez - Rocky Mountain Research (United States)Meg A Krawchuk - Oregon State UniversityMark R Kreider - University of MontanaAndrew J Larson - University of MontanaGarrett W Meigs - Washington Department of Natural ResourcesJohn Paul Roccaforte - Northern Arizona UniversityMonica T Rother - University of North Carolina WilmingtonHugh Safford - Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616Michael Schaedel - The Nature ConservancyJason S Sibold - Colorado State UniversityMegan P Singleton - Northern Arizona UniversityMonica G Turner - University of Wisconsin–MadisonAlexandra K Urza - Rocky Mountain Research StationKyra D Clark-Wolf - University of MontanaLarissa Yocom - Utah State UniversityJoseph B Fontaine - Murdoch UniversityJohn L Campbell - Oregon State University
- Publication Details
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.120(11), Art. e2208120120
- Publisher
- PNAS
- Grant note
- G18AC00325 / DOI North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center G20AC00205 / DOI North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
- Identifiers
- 991005573470007891
- Copyright
- © 2023 the Author(s).
- Murdoch Affiliation
- School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences; Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Sustainability
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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