Stochastic modelling of burden of livestock diseases on domestic ruminants in Ethiopia

Wudu T Jemberu; Gemma Chaters; Theodore J D Knight-Jones; William Gilbert; Stephen Kwok; Mieghan Bruce; Benjamin Huntington; Jonathan Rushton

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106761

Back

Stochastic modelling of burden of livestock diseases on domestic ruminants in Ethiopia

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Stochastic modelling of burden of livestock diseases on domestic ruminants in Ethiopia

Wudu T Jemberu, Gemma Chaters, Theodore J D Knight-Jones, William Gilbert, Stephen Kwok, Mieghan Bruce, Benjamin Huntington and Jonathan Rushton

Preventive veterinary medicine, Vol.247, 106761

2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106761

PMID: 41391376

Files and links (1)

pdf

Published 1.76 MBDownload View

Published (Version of Record)CC BY V4.0, Open Access

Abstract

Production system

Animal health loss envelope

Gross margin

Stochastic

Disease burden

Ethiopia

Ruminants

This study, carried out in 2022–2023, quantified the financial burden of disease in cattle, sheep and goats in Ethiopia for the year 2021 using the animal health loss envelope (AHLE) metric. The AHLE measures all cause disease burden, avoidable and non-avoidable, as the difference in the financial performance of a livestock production system (e.g., gross margin) comparing a scenario where animals are in an ideal state of health to the current situation. A stochastic dynamic population model (DPM) was employed to calculate the gross margin for an average farm and for the national herd under these current and ideal health scenarios. Data for parametrizing the DPM were derived from secondary sources and expert elicitation. The stochastic DPM was simulated for 10,000 iterations and results are reported as means with 95 % percentile intervals (PI). The annual AHLE per average farm was estimated at USD 1209 (95 %PI:392–2470) in cattle, USD 158 (95 %PI:66–292) in sheep and USD 416 (95 %PI:136–847) in goats. At national level, the annual AHLE in ruminants was USD 18.39 billion with USD 15.42 billion (95 % PI:12.70–18.57) in cattle, USD 1.04 billion (95 % PI:0.84–1.30) in sheep, and USD 1.93 billion (95 % PI:1.64–2.25) in goats. Morbidity losses constituted the largest component of the AHLE, exceeding 50 % across all species, while animal health expenditure represented the smallest component, accounting for less than 2 % of AHLE in all species. This high disease burden, with minimal contribution from animal health expenditure, indicates significant opportunity for improvement through investment in animal health.

Details

Title: Stochastic modelling of burden of livestock diseases on domestic ruminants in Ethiopia
Authors/Creators: Wudu T Jemberu
Gemma Chaters - Lancaster University
Theodore J D Knight-Jones - International Livestock Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
William Gilbert - University of Edinburgh
Stephen Kwok - Murdoch University
Mieghan Bruce - Murdoch University
Benjamin Huntington - University of Edinburgh
Jonathan Rushton - University of Edinburgh
Publication Details: Preventive veterinary medicine, Vol.247, 106761
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Number of pages: 8
Identifiers: 991005839728307891
Murdoch Affiliation: Centre for Biosecurity and One Health; School of Veterinary Medicine
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

Metrics

1 File views/ downloads

5 Record Views

InCites Highlights

These are selected metrics from InCites Benchmarking & Analytics tool, related to this output

Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 1 Clinical & Life Sciences; 1.104 Virology - General; 1.104.901 Enterovirus Research
Web Of Science research areas: Veterinary Sciences
ESI research areas: Plant & Animal Science