The End of an Era? Trends in Abundance and Reproduction of Australian Southern Right Whales (Eubalaena australis) Suggest Failure to Re-Establish Pre-Whaling Population Size

Anne Grundlehner; Joshua N Smith; John L Bannister; Virginia Andrews-Goff; Madeleine Brasier; Micheal C Double; Stuart P Corney

doi:10.1111/gcb.70218

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The End of an Era? Trends in Abundance and Reproduction of Australian Southern Right Whales (Eubalaena australis) Suggest Failure to Re-Establish Pre-Whaling Population Size

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The End of an Era? Trends in Abundance and Reproduction of Australian Southern Right Whales (Eubalaena australis) Suggest Failure to Re-Establish Pre-Whaling Population Size

Anne Grundlehner, Joshua N Smith, John L Bannister, Virginia Andrews-Goff, Madeleine Brasier, Micheal C Double and Stuart P Corney

Global change biology, Vol.31(5), e70218

01/05/2025

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70218

PMID: 40304046

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Abstract

aerial surveys

baleen whales

Bayesian statistics

exploitation

marine environment

marine mammals

population dynamics

population recovery

Southern Ocean

whaling

The large-scale exploitation of whale populations in the whaling era led to the near extirpation of large whales all over the world. This must have had major repercussions for marine ecosystems globally. Consequent changes to those ecosystems and physical environments create uncertainty around whether present-day conditions are adequate to support full recovery of pre-whaling population sizes. Combined with potential effects of anthropogenic stressors, the future viability of exploited whale populations is questioned. This migrating species was left near extinction from whaling and has shown slow, yet steady, recovery in recent decades. Here, we collate abundance data from aerial surveys performed along the Australian coast between 1976 and 2024, covering 2250 km of coastal habitat, to study the recovery trajectory of Australian southern right whales (Eubalaena australis). We describe temporal trends in abundance, reproduction and growth of the western sub-population. Our study reveals that despite previously displaying exponential growth, and a present population size still residing far below pre-whaling levels, our annual births have started declining since 2016 and annual abundances of unaccompanied individuals have dropped by 66%. Our results suggest the end of an era of this population's recovery, highlighting that an initial period of steady recovery does not guarantee successful re-establishment of previous abundance levels.

Details

Title: The End of an Era? Trends in Abundance and Reproduction of Australian Southern Right Whales (Eubalaena australis) Suggest Failure to Re-Establish Pre-Whaling Population Size
Authors/Creators: Anne Grundlehner - University of Tasmania
Joshua N Smith - Australian Antarctic Division
John L Bannister - Australian Museum
Virginia Andrews-Goff - Australian Antarctic Division
Madeleine Brasier - University of Tasmania
Micheal C Double - Australian Antarctic Division
Stuart P Corney - University of Tasmania
Publication Details: Global change biology, Vol.31(5), e70218
Publisher: WILEY
Number of pages: 16
Grant note: Commonwealth Department of Australia Research Scholarship and John Bannister Memorial Top-Up provided through the University of Tasmania National Environmental Science Program via the Marine Biodiversity Hub and Marine Coastal Hub The Island Foundation
Identifiers: 991005779222807891
Murdoch Affiliation: Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration
Citation topics: 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology; 3.35 Zoology & Animal Ecology; 3.35.796 Marine Mammal Ecology
Web Of Science research areas: Biodiversity Conservation; Ecology; Environmental Sciences
ESI research areas: Environment/Ecology