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Published (Version of Record)CC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Three generations of NARCliM: future projections of mean and extreme climate over the CORDEX Australasia domain
NPJ climate and atmospheric science, Vol.9(1), 13
2026
Abstract
Regional climate simulations provide essential high-resolution information for climate services. This study evaluates future changes in mean climate and 10 extremes using three generations of the NARCliM (NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling) project, which downscale CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. Projections show statistically significant increases in maximum and minimum temperatures across all NARCliM generations, with consistent spatial patterns. The magnitude of warming is primarily influenced by driving GCMs and emissions scenarios. In contrast, precipitation projections exhibit greater variability between generations, reflecting model and scenario differences and underscoring the challenge of projecting future precipitation. Extreme heat indices are projected to increase across Australia, with consistent spatial patterns and stronger changes under higher emissions, indicating more frequent and severe extreme heat events. Precipitation extremes display more variability across regions, model generations, and scenarios, although certain trends are robust. The intensity of very extreme rainfall (above the 99th percentile) is projected to increase, as is the maximum length of dry spells. Conversely, the maximum length of wet spells and the number of heavy rain days are expected to decrease. NARCliM2.0 specifically suggests shorter wet periods and fewer heavy rain days, but more intense extreme rainfall. These findings demonstrate the relative robustness of temperature and its extremes compared to precipitation and emphasize the value of broader GCM ensembles in future downscaling efforts to improve confidence in regional projections.
Details
- Title
- Three generations of NARCliM: future projections of mean and extreme climate over the CORDEX Australasia domain
- Authors/Creators
- Fei Ji - Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningMoutassem El Rafei - UNSW SydneyGiovanni Di Virgilio - Climate & Atmospheric Science, NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South WalesJason P. Evans - UNSW SydneyJatin Kala - Murdoch UniversityStephen White - Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningJulia Andrys - Murdoch UniversityDipayan Choudhury - Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningEugene Tam - Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningYue Li - Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningRishav Goyal - Department of Environment, Land, Water and PlanningCarlos Vieira Rocha - Climate & Atmospheric Science, NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and WaterMatthew L. Riley - Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning
- Publication Details
- NPJ climate and atmospheric science, Vol.9(1), 13
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group UK
- Number of pages
- 19
- Grant note
- CE230100012 / Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather
- Identifiers
- 991005852388907891
- Copyright
- © The Author(s) 2026
- Murdoch Affiliation
- Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Sustainability; School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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