Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Christine Adams-Hosking; Marissa F. McBride; Greg Baxter; Mark Burgman; Deidre de Villiers; Rodney Kavanagh; Ivan Lawler; Daniel Lunney; Alistair Melzer; Peter Menkhorst; Robyn Molsher; Ben D. Moore; David Phalen; Jonathan R. Rhodes; Charles Todd; Desley Whisson; Clive A. McAlpine

doi:10.1111/ddi.12400

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Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Journal article

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Peer reviewed

Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Christine Adams-Hosking, Marissa F. McBride, Greg Baxter, Mark Burgman, Deidre de Villiers, Rodney Kavanagh, Ivan Lawler, Daniel Lunney, Alistair Melzer, Peter Menkhorst, …

Diversity & distributions, Vol.22(3), pp.249-262

2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12400

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Abstract

bioregions

Delphi process

expert elicitation

conic

knowledge

koala populations

Phascolarctos cinereus

hreatened species

uncertainty

Aim The koala is a widely distributed Australian marsupial with regional populations that are in rapid decline, are stable or have increased in size. This study examined whether it is possible to use expert elicitation to estimate abundance and trends of populations of this species. Diverse opinions exist about estimates of abundance and, consequently, the status of populations. Location Eastern and south-eastern Australia Methods Using a structured, four-step question format, a panel of 15 experts estimated population sizes of koalas and changes in those sizes for bioregions within four states. They provided their lowest plausible estimate, highest plausible estimate, best estimate and their degree of confidence that the true values were contained within these upper and lower estimates. We derived estimates of the mean population size of koalas and associated uncertainties for each bioregion and state. Results On the basis of estimates of mean population sizes for each bioregion and state, we estimated that the total number of koalas for Australia is 329,000 (range 144,000–605,000) with an estimated average decline of 24% over the past three generations and the next three generations. Estimated percentage of loss in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia was 53%, 26%, 14% and 3%, respectively. Main conclusions It was not necessary to achieve high levels of certainty or consensus among experts before making informed estimates. A quantitative, scientific method for deriving estimates of koala populations and trends was possible, in the absence of empirical data on abundances.

Details

Title: Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)
Authors/Creators: Christine Adams-Hosking - The University of Queensland
Marissa F. McBride - The University of Melbourne
Greg Baxter - The University of Queensland
Mark Burgman - The University of Melbourne
Deidre de Villiers - Reef Ecologic
Rodney Kavanagh - Australian National University
Ivan Lawler - ACT
Daniel Lunney - The University of Sydney
Alistair Melzer - Central Queensland University
Peter Menkhorst - Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research
Robyn Molsher - Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, PO Box 39, Kingscote, SA, 5223 Australia
Ben D. Moore - Western Sydney University
David Phalen - The University of Sydney
Jonathan R. Rhodes - Univ Queensland, ARC Ctr Excellence Environm Decis, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
Charles Todd - Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research
Desley Whisson - Deakin University
Clive A. McAlpine - The University of Queensland
Publication Details: Diversity & distributions, Vol.22(3), pp.249-262
Publisher: Wiley
Number of pages: 14
Grant note: © Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) a Facility within the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN)
Identifiers: 991005579404207891
Murdoch Affiliation: Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

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Collaboration types: Domestic collaboration; International collaboration
Citation topics: 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology; 3.40 Forestry; 3.40.195 Biodiversity Conservation
Web Of Science research areas: Biodiversity Conservation; Ecology
ESI research areas: Environment/Ecology