The role of scientific uncertainties in transboundary water negotiations

Water diplomacy has emerged as a critical approach for promoting cooperation, preventing conflict, and ensuring equitable and sustainable water management across various scales, including community, subnational, and transboundary levels. However, the presence of uncertainty poses significant challenges to the effectiveness of water diplomacy efforts. This chapter investigates the scientific uncertainties in water diplomacy that pervade transboundary water management and negotiations. While the water diplomacy framework is applicable across multiple scales, the specific focus of this chapter is on the transboundary level. A comprehensive review is conducted to assess the extent to which existing global transboundary cooperation treaties account for uncertainty. Subsequently, various sources of uncertainty, including both variability (aleatory) and epistemic uncertainties in transboundary water resource assessment and management, are investigated. To illustrate the impact of uncertainties on diplomatic endeavors and decision-making processes, a case study of the Ganges River Basin is presented. The findings highlight the intricate relationship between scientific uncertainties and water diplomacy, emphasizing the need for robust approaches to address and navigate uncertainties in transboundary water negotiations.

Details

Title: The role of scientific uncertainties in transboundary water negotiations
Authors/Creators: Animesh K. Gain - Murdoch University, School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences
Publication Details: Routledge Handbook of Water Diplomacy, pp.192-201
Publisher: Routledge as part of the Taylor and Francis Group
Edition: 1
Number of pages: 10
Identifiers: 991005830344407891
Murdoch Affiliation: School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences
Language: English
Resource Type: Book chapter

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