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Published (Version of Record)CC BY V4.0, Open Access
Journal article
Seasonal and year-round distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and its risk to temperate fruits under climate change
Insects, Vol.13(6), Article 550
2022
Abstract
Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) is an important pest to fruits and vegetables. It can damage more than 300 plant species. The distribution of B. dorsalis has been expanding owing to international trade and other human activities. B. dorsalis occurrence is strongly related to suitable overwintering conditions and distribution areas, but it is unclear where these seasonal and year-round suitable areas are. We used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to predict the potential seasonal and year-round distribution areas of B. dorsalis. We also projected suitable habitat areas in 2040 and 2060 under global warming scenarios, such as SSP126 and SSP585. These models achieved AUC values of 0.860 and 0.956 for the seasonal and year-round scenarios, respectively, indicating their good prediction capabilities. The precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2) contributed 83.9% to the seasonal distribution prediction model. Bio2 and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) provided important information related to the year-round distribution prediction. In future scenarios, the suitable area of B. dorsalis will increase and the range will expand northward. Four important temperate fruits, namely, apples, peaches, pears, and oranges, will be seriously threatened. The information from this study provides a useful reference for implementing improved population management strategies for B. dorsalis.
Details
- Title
- Seasonal and year-round distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and its risk to temperate fruits under climate change
- Authors/Creators
- Z. Dong (Author/Creator) - Qingdao Agricultural UniversityY. He (Author/Creator) - Qingdao Agricultural UniversityY. Ren (Author/Creator) - Murdoch UniversityG. Wang (Author/Creator) - Murdoch UniversityD. Chu (Author/Creator) - Qingdao Agricultural University
- Publication Details
- Insects, Vol.13(6), Article 550
- Publisher
- MDPI
- Identifiers
- 991005540712407891
- Copyright
- © 2022 by the authors
- Murdoch Affiliation
- School of Agricultural Sciences
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article
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- Collaboration types
- Domestic collaboration
- International collaboration
- Citation topics
- 3 Agriculture, Environment & Ecology
- 3.40 Forestry
- 3.40.195 Biodiversity Conservation
- Web Of Science research areas
- Entomology
- ESI research areas
- Plant & Animal Science