Ali Hayes

The frequency and intensity of disasters is on the rise. Many countries in the Indo-Pacific region are highly vulnerable to natural hazards like droughts, earthquakes, floods, and cyclones. Accordingly, demand for Defence involvement in disaster response will grow. At the same time, great power competition in the region is intensifying, while several governments are challenged by insurgent groups and extremist movements. We study how disasters contribute to political unrest and fragility, but also analyse disaster-related opportunities for international cooperation and diplomacy. Disasters frequently fuel discontent with the government. This can result in protests and declines in government legitimacy, opening, up spaces for extremist movements and political instability. The impact of disasters on civil war is more mixed. Insurgents face significant challenges in dealing with disasters, but they can also recruit among those deprived by or aggrieved due to the disaster. Disaster risk reduction as a whole-of-government approach (including Defence) can hence be crucial for a strategy to deny access for domestic extremist groups. Cooperation with other countries in the Indo-Pacific affected by disasters, including relief provision by Defence, plays an important role in building partnerships with other countries in the region. Particularly when well-coordinated with international partners and relevant local actors, disaster responses can enhance Australia's national interest.