Joe Fontaine

Rising global temperature will have profound impacts on species and ecosystem functioning. Species existing near their thermal thresholds will be particularly vulnerable to these changes, and those species that rely on, or preferentially use, artificial structures may face pronounced effects. Gaining insights into the anticipated climate changes, both present and future, is crucial for informing conservation practices and the utilisation of artificial structures in conservation efforts. Using three years of data, we quantified and compared the temperature of artificial nest boxes installed between 1986 and 2006 and natural nest burrows of a fringing population of Little Penguins existing at the north-western limit of their range. Nest boxes were ineffective at replicating conditions of natural nests, exhibiting consistently higher daily maximum temperature (~2°C) and exceeding upper thermoneutral limits for longer than natural nests. Fine-scale biotic and abiotic nest characteristics influenced maximum nest temperature and exposure duration. Simulated temperature increase of 2°C predicted an increase in the number of days exceeding hyperthermic conditions (≥35°C) by up to 49%. Such increases will expose penguins to potentially fatal thermal conditions, particularly during the late breeding and moulting phases of their annual cycle. This study revealed that current and future thermal environments of Little Penguin terrestrial habitat on Penguin Island can exceed physiological limits for this species. Intervention to improve artificial nests and better quantify consequences is urgently needed given recent estimates of a declining population and increasing risk of local extinction.

Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub Banksia hookeriana dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire-prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process-based, spatially implicit population model for the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species B. hookeriana to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988–2002) and current (2003–2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatiotemporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions, and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of B. hookeriana. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter-fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long-term persistence (defined as > 400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, i.e., improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥ seven) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source-sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio-temporal fire regime for B. hookeriana, and likely as well for many other fire-killed species.