John Edwards

China launched a H7N9 vaccination program in poultry, starting from the Guangxi and Guangdong provinces in July 2017, followed by other provinces in September 2017, as a response to a steep increase of H7N9 influenza human infections from September 2016. Since then, H5-H7 bivalent vaccine has been used in the nationwide avian influenza compulsory vaccination program to replace the existing H5N1 vaccine. However, the economic returns of the H7N9 vaccination program in China have never been adequately assessed. This study was designed to evaluate the economic value of the H7N9 vaccination program in Guangxi by assessing the benefits and costs of the program compared to not vaccinating against H7N9. A benefit-cost analysis (BCA) was undertaken to evaluate the adoption of a vaccination program against H7N9 in each of three consecutive years from July 2017 to June 2020 with the baseline scenario (the absence of H7N9 vaccination in the 12-month period July 2016 to June 2017). Both animal and public health perspectives were included in the BCA framework and took account of both the private and public sectors. Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of the three-year H7N9 vaccination program was 18.6 (90 %PI: 15.4; 21.8), and total Net Present Values reached to CNY 1.63 billion (90 %PI: 1.37 billion; 1.89 billion). The extra revenue generated by the yellow broiler industry comprised 93.8 % of the total benefits after adoption of H7N9 vaccination program in Guangxi. While cost-savings in public health and animal health expenditure avoided were 3.6 % and 2.6 %, respectively. Total costs arising from adoption of the revised vaccination program over the three years were CNY 12.46 million (90 %PI: 11.49 million; 14.14 million), CNY 34.87 million (90 %PI: 31.88 million; 40.06 million), and CNY 44.28 million (90 %PI: 39.66 million; 52.27 million), respectively. Sensitivity analysis found the yellow broiler wholesale prices contributed 97.7 % of the variance of the total NPV of three vaccination years. The study results demonstrate the significant economic advantage of implementing a vaccination program against H7N9 in Guangxi. It also offers a new set of evidence to China’s H7N9 vaccination policy and debates around economic values of conducting routine avian influenza vaccination.

In response to a sudden increase in H7N9 human infections, China introduced an H5/H7 bivalent inactivated vaccine for poultry in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces in July 2017, which subsequently became integrated into the existing compulsory national H5N1 vaccination programme from September 2017. Although the vaccination programme effectively reduced H7N9 infections in humans and poultry, there are ongoing arguments against continuing this long-term vaccination. These discussions have drawn policymakers to think about the possibility of stopping routine vaccination for H7N9 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in China; however, they have not considered the poultry industry stakeholders’ practices on and attitudes towards this vaccination. This study investigated H7N9 vaccination practices in the yellow broiler industry in Guangxi and stakeholders’ attitudes on H7N9 vaccination, using a mixed methods design. The study found H7N9 vaccination was well adopted in the yellow broiler industry in Guangxi regardless of the source of the vaccines. Most stakeholders believed vaccination was the best measure to control H7N9 and H5N1 AIVs, and they showed a strong willingness to continue with vaccination even without government subsidies or freely provided vaccines. The motivations by stakeholders for using vaccines to control H7N9 and H5N1 were different due to the epidemiological differences between the two strains. Understanding poultry industry stakeholders’ practices and attitudes on H7N9 vaccination has important practical implications in planning vaccination policies, particularly when considering the possibility of vaccination withdrawal.

Most Chinese provinces have a daily-updated database of live animal movements; however, the data are not efficiently utilized to support interventions to control H7N9 and other avian influenzas. Based on official records, this study assessed the spatio-temporal patterns of live broilers moved out of and within Guangxi in 2017. The yearly and monthly networks were analyzed for inter- and intra-provincial movements, respectively. Approximately 200,000 movements occurred in 2017, involving the transport of 200 million live broilers from Guangxi. Although Guangxi exported to 24 out of 32 provinces of China, 95% of inter-provincial movements occurred with three bordering provinces. Within Guangxi, counties were highly connected through the live broiler movements, creating conditions for rapid virus spreading throughout the province. Interestingly, a peak in movements during the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations, late January in 2017, was not observed in this study, likely due to H7N9-related control measures constraining live bird trading. Both intra- and inter-provincial movements in March 2017 were significantly higher than in other months of that year, suggesting that dramatic price changes may influence the movement's network and reshape the risk pathways. However, despite these variations, the same small proportion of counties (less than 20%) exporting/importing more than 90% of inter- and intra-provincial movements remains the same throughout the year. Interventions, particularly surveillance and improving biosecurity, targeted to those counties are thus likely to be more effective for avian influenza risk mitigation than implemented indiscriminately. Additionally, simulations further demonstrated that targeting counties according to their degree or betweenness in the movement network would be the most efficient way to limit disease transmission via broiler movements. The study findings provide evidence to support the design of risk-based control interventions for H7N9 and all other avian influenza viruses in broiler value chains in Guangxi.

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world’s domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.

Yellow broilers are the primary source of poultry consumption in China and the predominant trade of live poultry. However, knowledge of the value chain is limited, which is vital evidence for the effective control of H7N9 and other zoonotic avian influenzas. The aim of the study was to map the yellow broiler value chain in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China and investigate its governance structure and practices relevant to the risk of H7N9 transmission. A value chain analysis was conducted in five areas of Guangxi from May to August 2018. To map the value chain, three focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted and stakeholders, products and premises involved and their interactions were identified. Then, 55 key informant interviews (KIIs) collected qualitative data on stakeholders’ profile, practices and interactions with other stakeholders and rules/norms that exist along the value chain. On-site observations were also carried out at different types of premises along the value chain to complement and validate findings of KIIs and FGDs. Participants were also asked to provide proportional estimates of each component in the value chain where possible. The qualitative data from FGDs, KIIs and on-site observations were analysed to create stakeholder profiles and a diagram of product flows and stakeholders’ interactions. Thematic analysis was used to identify the governance structure of the value chains and practices relevant to the risk of H7N9 transmission. The stakeholders and premises involved in Guangxi yellow broiler production, wholesale and retail were described, as well as their interactions. Contract farming is extensively adopted in Guangxi; consequently yellow broiler grower companies are the dominant stakeholders. The trading platform was identified as a key premise linking farms and live bird markets. The thematic analysis highlighted poor biosecurity practices in different premises along the value chain, which was supported by on-site observations. The operation of trading platforms reported in this study presents a disease risk but is not considered in the current H7N9 control programs. The study suggested that biosecurity management gaps need to be addressed through government-industry partnerships that require engagement with private stakeholders in the planning and implementation of H7N9 control strategies incentivising participation of grower companies, wholesalers and retailers.

The coinfection of swine influenza (SI) strains and avian/human-source influenza strains in piggeries can contribute to the evolution of new influenza viruses with pandemic potential. This study analyzed surveillance data on SI in south China and explored the spatial predictor variables associated with different influenza infection scenarios in counties within the study area. Blood samples were collected from 7670 pigs from 534 pig farms from 2015 to 2017 and tested for evidence of infection with influenza strains from swine, human and avian sources. The herd prevalences for EA H1N1, H1N1pdm09, classic H1N1, HS-like H3N2, seasonal human H1N1 and avian influenza H9N2 were 88.5, 64.5, 60.3, 57.8, 12.9 and 10.3 %, respectively. Anthropogenic factors including detection frequency, chicken density, duck density, pig density and human population density were found to be better predictor variables for three influenza infection scenarios (infection with human strains, infection with avian strains, and coinfection with H9N2 avian strain and at least one swine strain) than were meteorological and geographical factors. Predictive risk maps generated for the four provinces in south China highlighted that the areas with a higher risk of the three infection scenarios were predominantly clustered in the delta area of the Pearl River in Guangdong province and counties surrounding Poyang Lake in Jiangxi province. Identification of higher risk areas can inform targeted surveillance for influenza in humans and pigs, helping public health authorities in designing risk-based SI control strategies to address the pandemic influenza threat in south China.

Among the most economically relevant and environmentally devastating diseases globally are those caused by Phytophthora species. In Australia, production losses in agriculture and forestry results from several well-known cosmopolitan Phytophthora species and infestation of natural ecosystems by Phytophthora cinnamomi have caused irretrievable loss to biodiversity, especially in proteaceous dominated heathlands. For this review, all available records of Phytophthora in Australia were collated and curated, resulting in a database of 7869 records, of which 2957 have associated molecular data. Australian databases hold records for 99 species, of which 20 are undescribed. Eight species have no records linked to molecular data, and their presence in Australia is considered doubtful. The 99 species reside in 10 of the 12 clades recognised within the complete phylogeny of Phytophthora. The review includes discussion on each of these species? status and additional information provided for another 29 species of concern. The first species reported in Australia in 1900 was Phytophthora infestans. By 2000, 27 species were known, predominantly from agriculture. The significant increase in species reported in the subsequent 20 years has coincided with extensive surveys in natural ecosystems coupled with molecular taxonomy and the recognition of numerous new phylogenetically distinct but morphologically similar species. Routine and targeted surveys within Australian natural ecosystems have resulted in the description of 27 species since 2009. Due to the new species descriptions over the last 20 years, many older records have been reclassified based on molecular identification. The distribution of records is skewed toward regions with considerable activity in high productivity agriculture, horticulture and forestry, and native vegetation at risk from P. cinnamomi. Native and exotic hosts of different Phytophthora species are found throughout the phylogeny; however, species from clades 1, 7 and 8 are more likely to be associated with exotic hosts. One of the most difficult challenges to overcome when establishing a pest status is a lack of reliable data on the current state of a species in any given country or location. The database compiled here for Australia and the information provided for each species overcomes this challenge. This review will aid federal and state governments in risk assessments and trade negotiations by providing a comprehensive resource on the current status of Phytophthora species in Australia.

This study used social network analysis to investigate the indirect contact network between counties through the movement of live pigs through four wholesale live pig markets in Guangdong Province, China. All 14,118 trade records for January and June 2016 were collected from the markets and the patterns of pig trade in these markets analysed. Maps were developed to show the movement pathways. Evaluating the network between source counties was the primary objective of this study. A 1‐mode network was developed. Characteristics of the trading network were explored, and the degree, betweenness and closeness were calculated for each source county. Models were developed to compare the impacts of different disease control strategies on the potential magnitude of an epidemic spreading through this network. The results show that pigs from 151 counties were delivered to the four wholesale live pig markets in January and/or June 2016. More batches (truckloads of pigs sourced from one or more piggeries) were traded in these markets in January (8,001) than in June 2016 (6,117). The pigs were predominantly sourced from counties inside Guangdong Province (90%), along with counties in Hunan, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian and Henan provinces. The major source counties (46 in total) contributed 94% of the total batches during the two‐month study period. Pigs were sourced from piggeries located 10 to 1,417 km from the markets. The distribution of the nodes' degrees in both January and June indicates a free‐scale network property, and the network in January had a higher clustering coefficient (0.54 vs. 0.39) and a shorter average pathway length (1.91 vs. 2.06) than that in June. The most connected counties of the network were in the central, northern and western regions of Guangdong Province. Compared with randomly removing counties from the network, eliminating counties with higher betweenness, degree or closeness resulted in a greater reduction of the magnitude of a potential epidemic. The findings of this study can be used to inform targeted control interventions for disease spread through this live pig market trade network in south China.

A cross‐sectional survey was conducted from 2015 to 2018 to assess the risk of zoonotic influenza to humans at the human–pig interface in Guangdong Province, south China. One hundred and fifty‐three pig farmers, 21 pig traders and 16 pig trade workers were recruited using convenience sampling and surveyed at local pig farms, live pig markets and slaughterhouses, respectively. Questionnaires were administered to collect information on the biosecurity and trading practices adopted and their knowledge and beliefs about swine influenza (SI). Most (12 of 16) trade workers said they would enter piggeries to collect pigs and only six of 11 said they were always asked to go through an on‐farm disinfection procedure before entry. Only 33.7% of the interviewees believed that SI could infect humans, although pig farmers were more likely to believe this than traders and trade workers (p < .01). Several unsafe practices were reported by interviewees. ‘Having vaccination against seasonal flu’ (OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.19–8.93), ‘Believe that SI can cause death in pigs’ (no/yes: OR = 8.69, 95% CI: 2.71–36.57; not sure/yes: OR = 4.46, 95% CI: 1.63–14.63) and ‘Keep on working when getting mild flu symptoms’ (OR = 3.80, 95% CI: 1.38–11.46) were significantly and positively correlated to ‘lacking awareness of the zoonotic risk of SI’. ‘Lacking awareness of the zoonotic risk of SI’ (OR = 3.19, 95% CI: 1.67–6.21), ‘Keep on working when getting mild flu symptoms’ (OR = 3.59, 95% CI: 1.57–8.63) and ‘Don't know SI as a pig disease’ (OR = 3.48, 95% CI: 1.02–16.45) were significantly and positively correlated to ‘not using personal protective equipment when contacting pigs’. The findings of this study would benefit risk mitigation against potential pandemic SI threats in the human–pig interface in China.

The influenza A (H7N9) subtype remains a public health problem in China affecting individuals in contact with live poultry, particularly at live bird markets. Despite enhanced surveillance and biosecurity at LBMs H7N9 viruses are now more widespread in China. This study aims to quantify the temporal relationship between poultry surveillance results and the onset of human H7N9 infections during 2013–2017 and to estimate risk factors associated with geographical risk of H7N9 human infections in counties in Southeast China. Our results suggest that poultry surveillance data can potentially be used as early warning indicators for human H7N9 notifications. Furthermore, we found that human H7N9 incidence at county-level was significantly associated with the presence of wholesale LBMs, the density of retail LBMs, the presence of poultry virological positives, poultry movements from high-risk areas, as well as chicken population density and human population density. The results of this study can influence the current AI H7N9 control program by supporting the integration of poultry surveillance data with human H7N9 notifications as an early warning of the timing and areas at risk for human infection. The findings also highlight areas in China where monitoring of poultry movement and poultry infections could be prioritized.