Rachel Standish

Nutrient enrichment can result in long-term negative impacts on a range of native and semi-native plant communities worldwide. Despite this knowledge, fertiliser application is generally viewed as a necessary step in re-establishing native plant communities in post-mining restoration. However, long-term effects of nutrient addition to restored plant communities, particularly in native ecosystems that are adapted to inherently lownutrient soils, have received little attention. Here we report results of two experiments run for 15 and 20 years, respectively, to investigate the effect of applied P fertiliser on responses of Eucalyptus marginata (jarrah) forest re-sprouter understorey species in sites restored after bauxite mining in Western Australia. Resprouter species are abundant in unmined forest but are under-represented in restored sites. At the end of the two experiments (i.e. after 15 and 20 years), the abundance of three groups of re-sprouter understorey species was reduced, compared with the zero-fertiliser treatment, when P fertiliser was applied at rates from 20 to 120 kg P ha-1. In both experiments, the cover associated with P responsive legumes increased with increasing P application rates. This result suggests that when fertiliser is applied, slow-growing re-sprouter species are susceptible to being outcompeted by more vigorous understorey species. Consequently, if the goal of restoration is to re-establish a diverse plant community, then minimising fertiliser application rates may be appropriate.

Many species are threatened by global climate change, but plants are particularly vulnerable because, as sessile organisms, they are unable to move to areas with more suitable conditions as the climate changes. Instead they must rely on their seeds dispersing far and often to keep pace with a changing climate. This problem is exacerbated by the fragmentation of natural landscapes by clearing for agricultural or urban development, or similarly by a species requirement for particular soil types or topography. Models can help predict how different species will be affected by climate change. Most previous modelling work on predicting the persistence of plant and other species under climate change has been static, regression style modelling, known as climate envelope modelling. This has focussed on predicting where suitable environments for a species will likely occur under possible future climatic conditions, based on the species’ distribution under current conditions. While the existence of suitable environments in a new climate is a necessary condition for a species’ persistence, for sessile organisms such as plants, the ability of a species to move and colonise these suitable environments is also likely to be a major limitation. There is therefore a need for models that account for the dynamic processes involved in plant species’ migration and colonisation in changing climates. This paper presents such a dynamic model, called PPunCC (Plant Persistence under Climate Change). We describe how the PPunCC model represents the important factors and processes likely to affect a plant species’ capacity to migrate across a landscape fast enough to keep pace with a changing climate, such as the rate of climate change, the degree of landscape fragmentation, and the plant species’ life history, seed production, dispersal, and establishment. We also discuss how the model could be used to inform management decisions regarding adaptation options such as assisted migration or the creation of large-scale corridors that increase the connectivity of fragmented landscapes in order to help species migrate naturally and find suitable environments in new climates.